TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Melnykov vs Oleksandr Ovsiienko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611511––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:25 and never touched: 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 53 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 57.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 5–7 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Volodymyr Melnykov has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2557.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 6.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ovsiienko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Ovsiienko
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1379 vs Ovsiienko 1348
Melnykov
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 40% vs Ovsiienko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 60% vs Ovsiienko 40%
Melnykov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov -1 · Ovsiienko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Ovsiienko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovsiienko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 2.25 / Ovsiienko 1.571
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Ovsiienko)-6.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276541
Melnykov2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 60 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back20% 20 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 63
Ovsiienko1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 132 of 200
Up 2–0, closes it96% 86 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it87% 106 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnykov3wins
AwayOvsiienko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykov75%3 of 4
AwayOvsiienko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnykov4Ovsiienko6n = 10Ovsiienko took 6 of 10
S2Melnykov3Ovsiienko7n = 10Ovsiienko took 7 of 10
S3Melnykov4Ovsiienko6n = 10Ovsiienko took 6 of 10
S4Melnykov1Ovsiienko4n = 5Ovsiienko took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnykovOvsiienkoM − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.437.8−5.4per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 537 vs 460 / 89646%51.3%247 / 537 vs 460 / 896Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoMelnykov 2.25/Ovsiienko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.1%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ovsiienko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 10:50V. Melnykov238870O. Ovsiienko331111113
WOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov341211113O. Ovsiienko2310760
LSep 27 · 12:00V. Melnykov333811111O. Ovsiienko3811113133
LSep 25 · 05:35V. Melnykov571110179102O. Ovsiienko599121511123
WSep 24 · 09:20V. Melnykov511111126113O. Ovsiienko5189141192
WSep 19 · 06:30V. Melnykov3811115113O. Ovsiienko35871191
LSep 13 · 14:00V. Melnykov36981181O. Ovsiienko4011117113
LAug 27 · 11:30V. Melnykov246990O. Ovsiienko331111113
LAug 26 · 12:30V. Melnykov91440O. Ovsiienko331111113
LAug 24 · 07:50V. Melnykov198290O. Ovsiienko331111113
V. Melnykov10
LOct 11 · 12:00V. Melnykov2.2581111882O. Mytsyk1.57118911113WOct 5 · 12:50V. Melnykov2.25118911113O. Mytsyk1.5791111962LOct 5 · 10:50O. Ovsiienko1.801111113V. Melnykov1.918870WOct 5 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.20461181V. Melnykov1.6111114113LOct 5 · 07:50V. Melnykov2.6311681152M. Stetsenko1.44811117113WOct 5 · 06:50O. Lipeiko1.6112911121V. Melnykov2.2014119143WOct 1 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy2.255380V. Melnykov1.571111113WOct 1 · 10:50V. Melnykov2.25391111113O. Mytsyk1.5711113652WOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760LOct 1 · 08:20V. Melnykov2.00591161D. Ponomarenko1.7311117113
O. Ovsiienko10
WOct 11 · 12:30V. Kondratenko2.38112149102O. Ovsiienko1.537111211123LOct 9 · 11:50O. Ovsiienko1.671511141S. Skhabitskiy2.1017118113WOct 9 · 10:20O. Ovsiienko2.7511911113V. Smyk1.40511961LOct 9 · 08:50O. Ovsiienko1.80136111172O. Mytsyk1.91151135113LOct 9 · 07:20O. Ovsiienko3.007750E. Populovskyi1.361111113LOct 9 · 05:50O. Ovsiienko2.3811117752M. Stetsenko1.53971111113LOct 5 · 11:50S. Skhabitskiy2.00771211113O. Ovsiienko1.73111110762WOct 5 · 10:50O. Ovsiienko1.801111113V. Melnykov1.918870LOct 5 · 09:50O. Ovsiienko2.506750M. Stetsenko1.501111113LOct 1 · 09:50V. Melnykov2.251211113O. Ovsiienko1.5710760
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