TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Sergii Skhabitskiy vs Oleksandr Ovsiienko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7117111210117116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:43 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Ovsiienko to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Oleksandr Ovsiienko @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingSergii Skhabitskiy above · Oleksandr Ovsiienko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Ovsiienko at 54.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Sergii Skhabitskiy 19–12 Oleksandr Ovsiienko Oleksandr Ovsiienko has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:4354.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ovsiienko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-12 in 31
Skhabitskiy
Correct
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skhabitskiy 1301 vs Ovsiienko 1382
Ovsiienko
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skhabitskiy 40% vs Ovsiienko 60%
Ovsiienko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skhabitskiy 50% vs Ovsiienko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skhabitskiy -3 · Ovsiienko +1
Skhabitskiy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Ovsiienko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkhabitskiy 2.00 / Ovsiienko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Ovsiienko)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245529
Skhabitskiy2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 96 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 75
Ovsiienko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 136 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it97% 88 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it86% 108 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkhabitskiy3wins
AwayOvsiienko7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOvsiienko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkhabitskiyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOvsiienko75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skhabitskiy2Ovsiienko8n = 10Ovsiienko took 8 of 10
S2Skhabitskiy2Ovsiienko8n = 10Ovsiienko took 8 of 10
S3Skhabitskiy4Ovsiienko6n = 10Ovsiienko took 6 of 10
S4Skhabitskiy4Ovsiienko3n = 7Skhabitskiy took 4 of 7
S5Skhabitskiy3Ovsiienko2n = 5Skhabitskiy took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkhabitskiyOvsiienkoS − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.042.0−9.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkhabitskiyOvsiienkoBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 1086 vs 463 / 89943.7%51.5%475 / 1086 vs 463 / 899Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OvsiienkoSkhabitskiy 2.00/Ovsiienko 1.73
Miss
What we said
54.5%
Ovsiienko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Ovsiienko @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Skhabitskiy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy43115511113O. Ovsiienko4071111742
LOct 1 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2210750O. Ovsiienko341211113
WSep 30 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy50611516123O. Ovsiienko541181114102
LSep 27 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy4351311772O. Ovsiienko511111711113
LSep 25 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy35119691O. Ovsiienko4291111113
LSep 24 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy3948111152O. Ovsiienko47111168113
WSep 23 · 16:30S. Skhabitskiy48691111113O. Ovsiienko4411118862
LSep 21 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy61140O. Ovsiienko331111113
LSep 20 · 16:00S. Skhabitskiy22441131O. Ovsiienko4211119113
LSep 19 · 08:30S. Skhabitskiy227870O. Ovsiienko331111113
S. Skhabitskiy10
LOct 5 · 10:20S. Skhabitskiy2.387230O. Lipeiko1.531111113LOct 5 · 08:50S. Skhabitskiy2.20461181V. Melnykov1.6111114113LOct 5 · 07:20S. Skhabitskiy2.109490O. Mytsyk1.671111113WOct 5 · 05:50S. Skhabitskiy2.251114810133M. Stetsenko1.578121112112WOct 4 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.25115511113O. Ovsiienko1.5771111742WOct 4 · 17:00S. Baranskyi2.2015460S. Skhabitskiy1.611711113LOct 4 · 15:00V. Nechai1.731141112113S. Skhabitskiy2.0081141462WOct 4 · 14:00S. Skhabitskiy2.38611811113M. Stetsenko1.5311811582LOct 4 · 13:00O. Mytsyk1.6181111113S. Skhabitskiy2.20118931WOct 2 · 11:35S. Skhabitskiy2.00811711113M. Khalenko1.7311811382
O. Ovsiienko10
WOct 5 · 10:50O. Ovsiienko1.801111113V. Melnykov1.918870LOct 5 · 09:50O. Ovsiienko2.506750M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 5 · 08:20O. Ovsiienko3.001111153O. Lipeiko1.3699130WOct 5 · 06:20O. Ovsiienko1.83136114123O. Mytsyk1.831111611102LOct 4 · 19:00S. Skhabitskiy2.25115511113O. Ovsiienko1.5771111742LOct 4 · 17:30O. Ovsiienko2.505710M. Stetsenko1.501111113WOct 4 · 15:30O. Mytsyk1.83911871O. Ovsiienko1.8311311113LOct 4 · 13:30V. Nechai2.2511911113O. Ovsiienko1.57811981LOct 4 · 12:30S. Baranskyi1.22118115113O. Ovsiienko4.0071131172WOct 1 · 12:20D. Ponomarenko3.2511126722O. Ovsiienko1.337101111113
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