TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Horky vs Jirasek Martin 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 44 - B4 · Prague
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81110121181210113
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:31 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Horky above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 96 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Jirasek Martin at 58.9%
96 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:3158.9%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.8pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Martin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Horky 1447 vs Martin 1544
Martin
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horky 60% vs Martin 80%
Martin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horky 70% vs Martin 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horky -2 · Martin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Martin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorky 2.25 / Martin 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Martin)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13274535
Horky2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 6 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back8% 1 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Martin1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 42 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it81% 34 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorkyMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 164 vs 83 / 15153.1%55%87 / 164 vs 83 / 151Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MartinHorky 2.25/Martin 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Horky won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
J. Horky10
WOct 10 · 21:10T. Motacek1.801111791J. Horky1.9113711113LOct 10 · 19:05T. Motacek1.83114411113J. Horky1.8381111462LOct 10 · 18:35M. Flesar1.831111163J. Horky1.8366140WOct 10 · 17:35J. Horky2.109101111123P. Pesout1.67111278102WOct 10 · 16:05J. Horky1.67811118113P. Pesout2.1011841132WOct 10 · 15:05J. Horky1.50141113123V. Kaisler2.5016311101WOct 10 · 14:05J. Horky1.801112113S. Mezlik1.9161070LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113WAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550
J. Martin10
WOct 10 · 19:35J. Martin1.6181111133M. Flesar2.201186111WOct 10 · 18:05T. Motacek1.6781171262J. Martin2.101131110113LOct 8 · 21:35J. Martin1.401071181M. Chmelicek2.7512113113WOct 8 · 20:35M. Chmelicek2.751111781J. Martin1.4013911113WOct 8 · 19:35J. Martin1.9161111113D. Hons1.80115881WOct 8 · 18:05M. Flesar2.00410111392J. Martin1.731112911113WOct 7 · 21:05J. Martin—91111113M. Chmelicek—117151WOct 7 · 20:35J. Martin1.531111113M. Chmelicek2.384380LOct 7 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.8371112113J. Martin1.831191031LOct 7 · 18:35D. Hons1.8311116113J. Martin1.83951191
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