TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gesiarz vs Dawid Pyrek 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1187111012111119
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched: 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeDawid Pyrek to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Dawid Pyrek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-1
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Dawid Pyrek at 63.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 2–6 Dawid Pyrek Piotr Gesiarz has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1363.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 8.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pyrek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Pyrek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1428 vs Pyrek 1255
Gesiarz
Correct
both rated, 173 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 80% vs Pyrek 20%
Gesiarz
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 80% vs Pyrek 30%
Gesiarz
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +1 · Pyrek -3
Pyrek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Pyrek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pyrek form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 2.75 / Pyrek 1.40
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Pyrek)-8.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13274491
Gesiarz2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog39% won 61 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Pyrek1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 79 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it81% 61 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGesiarz2wins
AwayPyrek6wins
2 of 8 to a deciderPyrek leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz50%2 of 4
AwayPyrek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz4Pyrek4n = 8split evenly
S2Gesiarz1Pyrek7n = 8Pyrek took 7 of 8
S3Gesiarz3Pyrek5n = 8Pyrek took 5 of 8
S4Gesiarz2Pyrek3n = 5Pyrek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricGesiarzPyrekG − PBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match35.437.2−1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzPyrekBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 381 vs 374 / 77148%48.5%183 / 381 vs 374 / 771Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PyrekGesiarz 2.75/Pyrek 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.1%
Pyrek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WOct 10 · 20:30P. Gesiarz501171011113D. Pyrek4181112192
LOct 3 · 22:10P. Gesiarz36119791D. Pyrek4181111113
LOct 3 · 19:40P. Gesiarz379111161D. Pyrek3911134113
LAug 22 · 23:45P. Gesiarz30117931D. Pyrek4071111113
LAug 22 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2511770D. Pyrek351311113
LMay 11 · 18:25P. Gesiarz2361070D. Pyrek341112113
WMay 4 · 17:10P. Gesiarz331111113D. Pyrek186930
LJan 19 · 17:00P. Gesiarz4989111292D. Pyrek501111710113
P. Gesiarz10
WOct 10 · 18:55P. Gesiarz1.4011118113A. Szurgot2.75781121LOct 10 · 17:45P. Gesiarz2.38117561M. Lewczuk1.5381111113WOct 10 · 16:15P. Gesiarz1.3311117113D. Maszczynski3.25831161WOct 10 · 15:00P. Gesiarz2.751111113A. Fomin1.408580WOct 8 · 19:40A. Skupinski3.00411501P. Gesiarz1.3611911113LOct 8 · 18:55A. Zmijewski1.531111113P. Gesiarz2.387550WOct 8 · 18:10P. Gesiarz2.6311911113H. Tkaczyk1.44711661WOct 8 · 16:35P. Gesiarz2.381111113Z. Nocun1.538970WOct 8 · 15:50A. Kubiak1.4091111982P. Gesiarz2.75118611113WOct 7 · 22:20P. Gesiarz1.541111113A. Skupinski2.257950
D. Pyrek10
WOct 10 · 21:20D. Maszczynski2.636390D. Pyrek1.441111113LOct 10 · 19:20D. Pyrek2.75510110A. Fomin1.401112133LOct 10 · 18:10A. Szurgot2.50911137113D. Pyrek1.50119111172LOct 10 · 16:55M. Lewczuk1.7381111113D. Pyrek2.00115531WOct 10 · 15:25D. Maszczynski3.00111151162D. Pyrek1.36831113113LOct 4 · 02:35D. Pyrek2.5065130A. Fomin1.501111153LOct 4 · 01:00D. Pyrek2.506770G. Mucha1.461111113LOct 3 · 23:45D. Pyrek1.28911111132D. Maszczynski3.50111393113WOct 3 · 22:10D. Pyrek1.8381111113P. Gesiarz1.83119791LOct 3 · 21:00D. Pyrek2.5010830M. Karpiuk1.501211113
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