TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gesiarz vs Andriej Fomin 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115118––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:50 and never touched: 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-3
Point 42 set 3, 4-3 · our read held Andriej Fomin at 70.7%
42 points drawn · the score is 12 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 3–8 Andriej Fomin Piotr Gesiarz has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5070.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Fomin
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1407 vs Fomin 1536
Fomin
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 80% vs Fomin 100%
Fomin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 70% vs Fomin 90%
Fomin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +1 · Fomin +9
Fomin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Fomin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 2.75 / Fomin 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Fomin)-0.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13269496
Gesiarz2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 61 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Fomin1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 08)
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 309 of 423
Up 2–0, closes it98% 172 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it91% 237 of 261
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGesiarz2wins
AwayFomin8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarzn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayFomin87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz2Fomin8n = 10Fomin took 8 of 10
S2Gesiarz4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S3Gesiarz2Fomin8n = 10Fomin took 8 of 10
S4Gesiarz3Fomin2n = 5Gesiarz took 3 of 5
S5Gesiarz1Fomin2n = 3Fomin took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricGesiarzFominG − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.137.9−4.8per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzFominBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 376 vs 594 / 100347.6%59.2%179 / 376 vs 594 / 1003Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FominGesiarz 2.75/Fomin 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 19:55P. Gesiarz30118561A. Fomin3851111113
LOct 3 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2571170A. Fomin351113113
LOct 3 · 15:25P. Gesiarz29411681A. Fomin3811511113
WSep 29 · 22:20P. Gesiarz341111123A. Fomin2138100
WAug 20 · 18:20P. Gesiarz50811911113A. Fomin4211311982
LAug 1 · 23:20P. Gesiarz217680A. Fomin331111113
LAug 1 · 17:20P. Gesiarz48811121162A. Fomin52117149113
LJul 26 · 02:10P. Gesiarz2512580A. Fomin361411113
LJul 25 · 20:05P. Gesiarz208750A. Fomin331111113
LJul 19 · 01:45P. Gesiarz49109111272A. Fomin511211710113
P. Gesiarz10
WOct 8 · 19:40A. Skupinski3.00411501P. Gesiarz1.3611911113LOct 8 · 18:55A. Zmijewski1.531111113P. Gesiarz2.387550WOct 8 · 18:10P. Gesiarz2.6311911113H. Tkaczyk1.44711661WOct 8 · 16:35P. Gesiarz2.381111113Z. Nocun1.538970WOct 8 · 15:50A. Kubiak1.4091111982P. Gesiarz2.75118611113WOct 7 · 22:20P. Gesiarz1.541111113A. Skupinski2.257950WOct 7 · 21:05P. Gesiarz1.651113113D. Bartosik2.1061190LOct 7 · 19:55P. Gesiarz2.50118561A. Fomin1.4451111113LOct 7 · 18:45M. Warzecha1.29111112113P. Gesiarz3.30361471WOct 7 · 17:55P. Gesiarz1.361211113A. Staniczek2.8510580
A. Fomin10
WOct 8 · 04:40D. Bartosik—511111092A. Fomin—119612113WOct 8 · 03:55A. Staniczek3.95910111132A. Fomin1.20111279113WOct 8 · 01:55W. Stechly6.87991131A. Fomin1.0711119113WOct 8 · 01:10M. Warzecha1.8071380A. Fomin1.901115113WOct 7 · 23:30A. Barton5.759630A. Fomin1.121111113WOct 7 · 22:40D. Bartosik—6490A. Fomin—1111113WOct 7 · 21:55A. Staniczek4.1059100A. Fomin1.211111123WOct 7 · 19:55P. Gesiarz2.50118561A. Fomin1.4451111113WOct 7 · 19:10A. Skupinski3.15111171272A. Fomin1.30681114113LOct 7 · 17:30M. Warzecha1.6213101212123A. Fomin2.1511121014102
Upcoming Matches
P. Gesiarz
Oct 10 · 16:15P. Gesiarz1.33D. Maszczynski3.25—Oct 10 · 17:45P. Gesiarz2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Oct 10 · 18:55P. Gesiarz1.40A. Szurgot2.75—Oct 10 · 20:30P. Gesiarz2.75D. Pyrek1.40—Oct 10 · 21:45P. Gesiarz2.38M. Lewczuk1.53—Oct 10 · 22:35P. Gesiarz2.75A. Fomin1.40—Oct 11 · 00:10P. Gesiarz2.75D. Pyrek1.40—Oct 11 · 01:00P. Gesiarz1.40A. Szurgot2.75—Oct 11 · 01:45P. Gesiarz1.40D. Maszczynski2.75—
A. Fomin
Oct 10 · 16:35A. Fomin1.20A. Szurgot4.33—Oct 10 · 17:20A. Fomin1.14D. Maszczynski5.00—Oct 10 · 19:20A. Fomin1.40D. Pyrek2.75—Oct 10 · 20:05A. Fomin1.44M. Lewczuk2.63—Oct 10 · 21:00A. Fomin—A. Szurgot——Oct 10 · 22:35A. Fomin1.40P. Gesiarz2.75—Oct 10 · 23:20A. Fomin1.14D. Maszczynski5.00—Oct 11 · 01:25A. Fomin1.40D. Pyrek2.75—Oct 11 · 02:10A. Fomin1.44M. Lewczuk2.63—Oct 11 · 15:25A. Fomin—K. Kwiatkowski——
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