TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Zmijewski vs Piotr Gesiarz 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115115––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched: 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Piotr Gesiarz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Artur Zmijewski at 60.8%
50 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 3–1 Piotr Gesiarz Piotr Gesiarz has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5260.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Zmijewski
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1464 vs Gesiarz 1400
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 80% vs Gesiarz 100%
Gesiarz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 70% vs Gesiarz 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski +2 · Gesiarz +5
Gesiarz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Zmijewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.533 / Gesiarz 2.375
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Zmijewski)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264352
Zmijewski1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 84 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it87% 65 of 75
Gesiarz2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 58 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeZmijewski3wins
AwayGesiarz1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderZmijewski leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski2Gesiarz2n = 4split evenly
S2Zmijewski2Gesiarz2n = 4split evenly
S3Zmijewski3Gesiarz1n = 4Zmijewski took 3 of 4
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricZmijewskiGesiarzZ − GBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match34.827.2+7.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiGesiarzBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 194 vs 178 / 37558.8%47.5%114 / 194 vs 178 / 375Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiZmijewski 1.53/Gesiarz 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 8 · 18:55A. Zmijewski331111113P. Gesiarz177550
WOct 5 · 18:00A. Zmijewski47861111113P. Gesiarz3811116822
WSep 14 · 20:20A. Zmijewski341112113P. Gesiarz1931060
LAug 20 · 21:30A. Zmijewski25105100P. Gesiarz351211123
A. Zmijewski10
WOct 8 · 17:45A. Zmijewski1.61911127133A. Kubiak2.201141011112WOct 8 · 16:15A. Zmijewski1.22118711113A. Skupinski4.0031111912LOct 8 · 15:00A. Zmijewski1.6779111382Z. Nocun2.101111511113WOct 6 · 02:00J. Cyndera2.372480A. Zmijewski1.511111113WOct 6 · 01:10M. Machelski3.257111151A. Zmijewski1.3011133113WOct 6 · 00:25A. Zmijewski1.331111113A. Staniczek3.105650WOct 5 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.3411911113A. Kubiak3.00411651LOct 5 · 22:00J. Michalik1.701111113A. Zmijewski2.007980LOct 5 · 20:45A. Zmijewski1.4011991192A. Staniczek2.76411113113WOct 5 · 19:10A. Zmijewski1.161111113D. Maszczynski4.809360
P. Gesiarz10
WOct 8 · 18:10P. Gesiarz2.6311911113H. Tkaczyk1.44711661WOct 8 · 16:35P. Gesiarz2.381111113Z. Nocun1.538970WOct 8 · 15:50A. Kubiak1.4091111982P. Gesiarz2.75118611113WOct 7 · 22:20P. Gesiarz1.541111113A. Skupinski2.257950WOct 7 · 21:05P. Gesiarz1.651113113D. Bartosik2.1061190LOct 7 · 19:55P. Gesiarz2.50118561A. Fomin1.4451111113LOct 7 · 18:45M. Warzecha1.29111112113P. Gesiarz3.30361471WOct 7 · 17:55P. Gesiarz1.361211113A. Staniczek2.8510580LOct 5 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.201061151A. Kubiak1.5712116113WOct 5 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.706101181P. Gesiarz2.0511129113
Upcoming Matches
A. Zmijewski
P. Gesiarz
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