TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gesiarz vs Henryk Tkaczyk 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117911116116––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:05 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 67.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 2–2 Henryk Tkaczyk Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0567.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1397 vs Tkaczyk 1517
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 80% vs Tkaczyk 60%
Gesiarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 60% vs Tkaczyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +4 · Tkaczyk +2
Gesiarz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 2.625 / Tkaczyk 1.444
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Tkaczyk)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13260039
Gesiarz2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 58 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Tkaczyk1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 424 of 613
Up 2–0, closes it93% 236 of 253
Up 1–0, closes it85% 323 of 379
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeGesiarz2wins
AwayTkaczyk2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarzn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTkaczyk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz1Tkaczyk3n = 4Tkaczyk took 3 of 4
S2Gesiarz1Tkaczyk3n = 4Tkaczyk took 3 of 4
S3Gesiarz4Tkaczyk0n = 4Gesiarz took 4 of 4
S4Gesiarz1Tkaczyk2n = 3Tkaczyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricGesiarzTkaczykG − TBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match34.536.2−1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 373 vs 1033 / 151947.5%68%177 / 373 vs 1033 / 1519Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykGesiarz 2.63/Tkaczyk 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 17 · 20:20P. Gesiarz474101111113H. Tkaczyk4311124882
LAug 3 · 16:50P. Gesiarz35681381H. Tkaczyk44111111113
LJun 22 · 18:00P. Gesiarz23821121H. Tkaczyk4211119113
WJan 12 · 19:25P. Gesiarz331111113H. Tkaczyk164660
P. Gesiarz10
LOct 8 · 18:55A. Zmijewski1.531111113P. Gesiarz2.387550WOct 8 · 16:35P. Gesiarz2.381111113Z. Nocun1.538970WOct 8 · 15:50A. Kubiak1.4091111982P. Gesiarz2.75118611113WOct 7 · 22:20P. Gesiarz1.541111113A. Skupinski2.257950WOct 7 · 21:05P. Gesiarz1.651113113D. Bartosik2.1061190LOct 7 · 19:55P. Gesiarz2.50118561A. Fomin1.4451111113LOct 7 · 18:45M. Warzecha1.29111112113P. Gesiarz3.30361471WOct 7 · 17:55P. Gesiarz1.361211113A. Staniczek2.8510580LOct 5 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.201061151A. Kubiak1.5712116113WOct 5 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.706101181P. Gesiarz2.0511129113
H. Tkaczyk10
WOct 8 · 16:55A. Kubiak2.3881181192H. Tkaczyk1.53117116113WOct 8 · 15:25A. Skupinski4.0071080H. Tkaczyk1.221112113LOct 8 · 02:35Z. Nocun2.101112163H. Tkaczyk1.67810140WOct 8 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk1.57881111113A. Krezel2.2511118782LOct 8 · 00:10J. Zelezik2.10123813133H. Tkaczyk1.6710111111112LOct 7 · 22:55J. Michalik2.7511116113H. Tkaczyk1.40871141WOct 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk2.638740H. Tkaczyk1.441111113LOct 7 · 20:30J. Zelezik2.251111113H. Tkaczyk1.576680WOct 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.501111811123A. Krezel2.50139119102WOct 7 · 18:10Z. Nocun2.1067111122H. Tkaczyk1.67111175113
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