TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gesiarz vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119117––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:24 and never touched: 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 61.6%
57 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 1–2 Zbigniew Nocun Piotr Gesiarz has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2461.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1397 vs Nocun 1436
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 60% vs Nocun 40%
Gesiarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 60% vs Nocun 40%
Gesiarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +3 · Nocun +2
Gesiarz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Nocun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 2.375 / Nocun 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Nocun)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13260320
Gesiarz2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 58 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Nocun1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 339 of 510
Up 2–0, closes it94% 167 of 177
Up 1–0, closes it86% 243 of 284
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeGesiarz1wins
AwayNocun2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderNocun leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz33.3%1 of 3
AwayNocunn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz3Nocun0n = 3Gesiarz took 3 of 3
S2Gesiarz1Nocun2n = 3Nocun took 2 of 3
S3Gesiarz2Nocun1n = 3Gesiarz took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricGesiarzNocunG − NBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match35.737.0−1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 373 vs 730 / 122147.5%59.8%177 / 373 vs 730 / 1221Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NocunGesiarz 2.38/Nocun 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 8 · 16:35P. Gesiarz331111113Z. Nocun248970
LAug 19 · 02:45P. Gesiarz42115111052Z. Nocun47511812113
LAug 18 · 23:05P. Gesiarz32116781Z. Nocun4071111113
P. Gesiarz10
WOct 8 · 15:50A. Kubiak1.4091111982P. Gesiarz2.75118611113WOct 7 · 22:20P. Gesiarz1.541111113A. Skupinski2.257950WOct 7 · 21:05P. Gesiarz1.651113113D. Bartosik2.1061190LOct 7 · 19:55P. Gesiarz2.50118561A. Fomin1.4451111113LOct 7 · 18:45M. Warzecha1.29111112113P. Gesiarz3.30361471WOct 7 · 17:55P. Gesiarz1.361211113A. Staniczek2.8510580LOct 5 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.201061151A. Kubiak1.5712116113WOct 5 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.706101181P. Gesiarz2.0511129113LOct 5 · 18:00A. Zmijewski1.91861111113P. Gesiarz1.8011116822WOct 5 · 17:10P. Gesiarz1.421111113A. Staniczek2.609670
Z. Nocun10
LOct 8 · 17:20A. Skupinski2.631111113Z. Nocun1.443270WOct 8 · 15:00A. Zmijewski1.6779111382Z. Nocun2.101111511113WOct 8 · 02:35Z. Nocun2.101112163H. Tkaczyk1.67810140LOct 8 · 01:00Z. Nocun1.83109100J. Zelezik1.831211123LOct 7 · 23:45Z. Nocun1.53119111192J. Michalik2.38511137113LOct 7 · 22:10Z. Nocun1.44491191M. Lewczuk2.6311114113WOct 7 · 21:00Z. Nocun1.7351111113A. Krezel2.00116491WOct 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.637720Z. Nocun1.441111113LOct 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.83111111113Z. Nocun1.83139891LOct 7 · 18:10Z. Nocun2.1067111122H. Tkaczyk1.67111175113
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