TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Nocun vs Jacek Zelezik 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10129111012––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Zelezik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Jacek Zelezik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 64 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Jacek Zelezik at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 29–15 Jacek Zelezik Jacek Zelezik has won 15 of their 44 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Zelezik beat Nocun 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:5654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zelezik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-15 in 44
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 14 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1431 vs Zelezik 1619
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 188 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 40% vs Zelezik 100%
Zelezik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 40% vs Zelezik 90%
Zelezik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun -2 · Zelezik +8
Zelezik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zelezik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.833 / Zelezik 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zelezik)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13258546
Nocun1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Zelezik1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun6wins
AwayZelezik4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun85.7%6 of 7
AwayZelezik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun7Zelezik3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S2Nocun6Zelezik4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S3Nocun5Zelezik5n = 10split evenly
S4Nocun1Zelezik7n = 8Zelezik took 7 of 8
S5Nocun3Zelezik0n = 3Nocun took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunZelezikN − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.738.4+1.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunZelezikBasisWin rate · lifetime728 / 1217 vs 421 / 75659.8%55.7%728 / 1217 vs 421 / 756Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZelezikNocun 1.83/Zelezik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zelezik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 18:55Z. Nocun39139891J. Zelezik44111111113
LSep 14 · 22:50Z. Nocun33611791J. Zelezik4011711113
WSep 14 · 16:55Z. Nocun48121175133J. Zelezik521091111112
WSep 6 · 23:45Z. Nocun4211911113J. Zelezik33811951
WSep 6 · 15:50Z. Nocun51119119113J. Zelezik4031191162
WSep 4 · 03:05Z. Nocun331111113J. Zelezik257990
LSep 3 · 21:05Z. Nocun33611881J. Zelezik4011711113
WAug 27 · 01:45Z. Nocun46117116113J. Zelezik4491141192
WAug 26 · 16:15Z. Nocun351111133J. Zelezik2485110
LAug 19 · 03:55Z. Nocun376111191J. Zelezik4211713113
Z. Nocun10
LOct 7 · 23:45Z. Nocun1.53119111192J. Michalik2.38511137113LOct 7 · 22:10Z. Nocun1.44491191M. Lewczuk2.6311114113WOct 7 · 21:00Z. Nocun1.7351111113A. Krezel2.00116491WOct 7 · 19:40M. Lewczuk2.637720Z. Nocun1.441111113LOct 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.83111111113Z. Nocun1.83139891LOct 7 · 18:10Z. Nocun2.1067111122H. Tkaczyk1.67111175113LOct 7 · 16:35Z. Nocun1.6712871192A. Krezel2.101011111113WOct 7 · 15:50J. Michalik2.20109100Z. Nocun1.611211123LOct 5 · 01:45Z. Nocun1.6191170K. Kwiatkowski2.201113113WOct 5 · 00:35Z. Nocun1.5371111113G. Mucha2.38116981
J. Zelezik10
WOct 8 · 00:10J. Zelezik2.10123813133H. Tkaczyk1.6710111111112WOct 7 · 22:35J. Zelezik1.671111113A. Krezel2.106590WOct 7 · 21:45J. Michalik2.637890J. Zelezik1.441111113WOct 7 · 20:30J. Zelezik2.251111113H. Tkaczyk1.576680WOct 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.83111111113Z. Nocun1.83139891WOct 7 · 17:45J. Zelezik1.531111113J. Michalik2.386680WOct 7 · 16:15J. Zelezik1.6111124113M. Lewczuk2.206101121WOct 7 · 15:00J. Zelezik1.9181111113A. Krezel1.80118981LOct 1 · 04:40M. Zielinski—117126113J. Zelezik—911101162WOct 1 · 03:55A. Staniczek4.05139971J. Zelezik1.18111111113
Upcoming Matches
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