TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jacek Zelezik vs Henryk Tkaczyk 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121031181113111311
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:52 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJacek Zelezik above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 103 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Jacek Zelezik 17–28 Henryk Tkaczyk Jacek Zelezik has won 17 of their 45 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Zelezik beat Tkaczyk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5254.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-28 in 45
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 11 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelezik 1610 vs Tkaczyk 1521
Zelezik
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelezik 100% vs Tkaczyk 60%
Zelezik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelezik 90% vs Tkaczyk 60%
Zelezik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelezik +7 · Tkaczyk -1
Zelezik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Tkaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelezik form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelezik 2.10 / Tkaczyk 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tkaczyk)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13259056
Zelezik2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 80 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back26% 27 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Tkaczyk1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 419 of 603
Up 2–0, closes it93% 234 of 251
Up 1–0, closes it85% 321 of 377
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelezik3wins
AwayTkaczyk7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelezik40%2 of 5
AwayTkaczyk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelezik5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S2Zelezik5Tkaczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Zelezik4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Zelezik3Tkaczyk4n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5Zelezik0Tkaczyk3n = 3Tkaczyk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelezikTkaczykZ − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.938.7−4.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelezikTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 755 vs 1032 / 151955.6%67.9%420 / 755 vs 1032 / 1519Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykZelezik 2.10/Tkaczyk 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zelezik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 20:30J. Zelezik331111113H. Tkaczyk206680
LSep 23 · 23:30J. Zelezik321211541H. Tkaczyk45101311113
WSep 23 · 19:10J. Zelezik3711411113H. Tkaczyk27511381
LSep 17 · 23:30J. Zelezik248970H. Tkaczyk331111113
LSep 11 · 01:55J. Zelezik247980H. Tkaczyk331111113
LSep 10 · 19:55J. Zelezik4212137552H. Tkaczyk5410111111113
WSep 8 · 01:50J. Zelezik3851111113H. Tkaczyk32117771
LSep 7 · 18:10J. Zelezik23511341H. Tkaczyk3811511113
LAug 26 · 22:35J. Zelezik3711621352H. Tkaczyk517111111113
LAug 26 · 15:00J. Zelezik49711147102H. Tkaczyk541181211123
J. Zelezik10
WOct 8 · 01:00Z. Nocun1.83109100J. Zelezik1.831211123WOct 7 · 22:35J. Zelezik1.671111113A. Krezel2.106590WOct 7 · 21:45J. Michalik2.637890J. Zelezik1.441111113WOct 7 · 20:30J. Zelezik2.251111113H. Tkaczyk1.576680WOct 7 · 18:55J. Zelezik1.83111111113Z. Nocun1.83139891WOct 7 · 17:45J. Zelezik1.531111113J. Michalik2.386680WOct 7 · 16:15J. Zelezik1.6111124113M. Lewczuk2.206101121WOct 7 · 15:00J. Zelezik1.9181111113A. Krezel1.80118981LOct 1 · 04:40M. Zielinski—117126113J. Zelezik—911101162WOct 1 · 03:55A. Staniczek4.05139971J. Zelezik1.18111111113
H. Tkaczyk10
WOct 8 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk1.57881111113A. Krezel2.2511118782LOct 7 · 22:55J. Michalik2.7511116113H. Tkaczyk1.40871141WOct 7 · 21:20M. Lewczuk2.638740H. Tkaczyk1.441111113LOct 7 · 20:30J. Zelezik2.251111113H. Tkaczyk1.576680WOct 7 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.501111811123A. Krezel2.50139119102WOct 7 · 18:10Z. Nocun2.1067111122H. Tkaczyk1.67111175113LOct 7 · 16:55J. Michalik2.631111113H. Tkaczyk1.448470WOct 7 · 15:25M. Lewczuk2.63128651H. Tkaczyk1.44101111113WOct 7 · 05:10H. Tkaczyk—113711113M. Zielinski—91111542WOct 7 · 03:50H. Tkaczyk—161111123M. Brunner—1878101
Upcoming Matches
J. Zelezik
Oct 8 · 17:55J. Zelezik—A. Krezel——Oct 8 · 19:30J. Zelezik—M. Machelski——Oct 8 · 20:45J. Zelezik—D. Molenda——Oct 8 · 21:55J. Zelezik—M. Wolny——Oct 8 · 23:05J. Zelezik—J. Michalik——Oct 8 · 23:55J. Zelezik—A. Krezel——Oct 9 · 01:30J. Zelezik—M. Machelski——Oct 9 · 02:45J. Zelezik—J. Michalik——Oct 9 · 03:55J. Zelezik—M. Wolny——Oct 9 · 05:05J. Zelezik—A. Barton——
H. Tkaczyk
Oct 8 · 02:35H. Tkaczyk1.67Z. Nocun2.10—Oct 8 · 15:25H. Tkaczyk—A. Skupinski——Oct 8 · 16:55H. Tkaczyk—A. Kubiak——Oct 8 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk—P. Gesiarz——Oct 8 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk—Z. Nocun——Oct 8 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk—A. Zmijewski——Oct 8 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk—A. Skupinski——Oct 8 · 22:55H. Tkaczyk—A. Kubiak——Oct 9 · 00:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Zmijewski——Oct 9 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk—Z. Nocun——
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