TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Zmijewski vs Artur Kubiak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91111412107111311
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:43 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeArtur Zmijewski to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 99 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Artur Zmijewski at 58.1%
99 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 5–4 Artur Kubiak Artur Kubiak has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4358.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zmijewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1441 vs Kubiak 1423
Zmijewski
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 80% vs Kubiak 60%
Zmijewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 70% vs Kubiak 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski +1 · Kubiak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Zmijewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 1.615 / Kubiak 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Zmijewski)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264187
Zmijewski1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 84 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it87% 65 of 75
Kubiak2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 73 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back16% 21 of 133
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeZmijewski5wins
AwayKubiak4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderZmijewski leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewski66.7%4 of 6
AwayKubiak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski6Kubiak3n = 9Zmijewski took 6 of 9
S2Zmijewski4Kubiak5n = 9Kubiak took 5 of 9
S3Zmijewski6Kubiak3n = 9Zmijewski took 6 of 9
S4Zmijewski3Kubiak2n = 5Zmijewski took 3 of 5
S5Zmijewski1Kubiak2n = 3Kubiak took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricZmijewskiKubiakZ − KBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match39.435.2+4.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 192 vs 492 / 90258.3%54.6%112 / 192 vs 492 / 902Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZmijewskiZmijewski 1.61/Kubiak 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Zmijewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zmijewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 5 · 22:50A. Zmijewski4211911113A. Kubiak26411651
LOct 5 · 15:10A. Zmijewski30411961A. Kubiak3911611113
WSep 4 · 23:10A. Zmijewski351111133A. Kubiak2348110
LSep 4 · 17:10A. Zmijewski51119111192A. Kubiak52811139113
WAug 30 · 21:45A. Zmijewski331111113A. Kubiak209380
LAug 30 · 17:45A. Zmijewski258890A. Kubiak331111113
LAug 10 · 21:10A. Zmijewski53159117112A. Kubiak521311411133
WAug 9 · 00:25A. Zmijewski341111123A. Kubiak2394100
WAug 8 · 20:45A. Zmijewski521081211113A. Kubiak49121110792
A. Zmijewski10
WOct 8 · 18:55A. Zmijewski1.531111113P. Gesiarz2.387550WOct 8 · 16:15A. Zmijewski1.22118711113A. Skupinski4.0031111912LOct 8 · 15:00A. Zmijewski1.6779111382Z. Nocun2.101111511113WOct 6 · 02:00J. Cyndera2.372480A. Zmijewski1.511111113WOct 6 · 01:10M. Machelski3.257111151A. Zmijewski1.3011133113WOct 6 · 00:25A. Zmijewski1.331111113A. Staniczek3.105650WOct 5 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.3411911113A. Kubiak3.00411651LOct 5 · 22:00J. Michalik1.701111113A. Zmijewski2.007980LOct 5 · 20:45A. Zmijewski1.4011991192A. Staniczek2.76411113113WOct 5 · 19:10A. Zmijewski1.161111113D. Maszczynski4.809360
A. Kubiak10
WOct 8 · 18:30A. Skupinski2.75108111112A. Kubiak1.40121188113LOct 8 · 16:55A. Kubiak2.3881181192H. Tkaczyk1.53117116113LOct 8 · 15:50A. Kubiak1.4091111982P. Gesiarz2.75118611113WOct 6 · 02:20J. Michalik2.1061060A. Kubiak1.661112113WOct 6 · 01:35A. Staniczek3.2812380A. Kubiak1.241411113WOct 5 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.95691221A. Kubiak1.75111110113LOct 5 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.3411911113A. Kubiak3.00411651WOct 5 · 21:10M. Machelski2.70961161A. Kubiak1.4011118113WOct 5 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.201061151A. Kubiak1.5712116113WOct 5 · 19:35A. Staniczek4.00913861A. Kubiak1.22111111113
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