TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Arkadiusz Skupinski vs Artur Kubiak 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012811118118111
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched: 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeArtur Kubiak to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Skupinski above · Artur Kubiak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 1-11
Point 91 set 5, 1-11 · our read held Artur Kubiak at 70.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Skupinski 4–16 Artur Kubiak Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 4 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2370.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kubiak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-16 in 20
Kubiak
Correct
gap of 12 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skupinski 1245 vs Kubiak 1413
Kubiak
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skupinski 40% vs Kubiak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skupinski 20% vs Kubiak 60%
Kubiak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skupinski +1 · Kubiak -3
Kubiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Kubiak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubiak form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkupinski 2.75 / Kubiak 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Kubiak)-0.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13264368
Skupinski2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 40 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Kubiak1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 167 of 240
Up 2–0, closes it96% 80 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it83% 115 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkupinski3wins
AwayKubiak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKubiak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkupinski50%3 of 6
AwayKubiak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skupinski6Kubiak4n = 10Skupinski took 6 of 10
S2Skupinski3Kubiak7n = 10Kubiak took 7 of 10
S3Skupinski2Kubiak8n = 10Kubiak took 8 of 10
S4Skupinski2Kubiak6n = 8Kubiak took 6 of 8
S5Skupinski2Kubiak1n = 3Skupinski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkupinskiKubiakS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.740.7−8.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkupinskiKubiakBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 410 vs 492 / 90338.3%54.5%157 / 410 vs 492 / 903Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KubiakSkupinski 2.75/Kubiak 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Kubiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 18:10A. Skupinski49116165113A. Kubiak50611141182
LDec 24 · 02:55A. Skupinski301131061A. Kubiak4281112113
WDec 23 · 20:55A. Skupinski40113211133A. Kubiak51911119112
LAug 28 · 02:45A. Skupinski31117581A. Kubiak3961111113
WAug 27 · 23:05A. Skupinski4211911113A. Kubiak32511791
LAug 14 · 04:20A. Skupinski188550A. Kubiak331111113
LAug 13 · 18:45A. Skupinski29811551A. Kubiak3911611113
LJul 8 · 22:20A. Skupinski175480A. Kubiak331111113
LJul 3 · 20:20A. Skupinski29411951A. Kubiak4211911113
LJun 27 · 23:35A. Skupinski4211114792A. Kubiak46761111113
A. Skupinski10
WOct 8 · 17:20A. Skupinski2.631111113Z. Nocun1.443270LOct 8 · 16:15A. Zmijewski1.22118711113A. Skupinski4.0031111912LOct 8 · 15:25A. Skupinski4.0071080H. Tkaczyk1.221112113LOct 7 · 22:20P. Gesiarz1.541111113A. Skupinski2.257950WOct 7 · 21:30M. Warzecha1.496480A. Skupinski2.471111113LOct 7 · 20:45A. Skupinski1.753860A. Staniczek1.951111113LOct 7 · 19:10A. Skupinski3.15111171272A. Fomin1.30681114113LOct 7 · 18:20D. Bartosik—111110113A. Skupinski—771241LOct 2 · 01:45A. Skupinski2.6381060A. Fomin1.441112113LOct 2 · 00:35A. Skupinski2.75117831A. Krezel1.4081111113
A. Kubiak10
LOct 8 · 17:45A. Zmijewski1.61911127133A. Kubiak2.201141011112LOct 8 · 16:55A. Kubiak2.3881181192H. Tkaczyk1.53117116113LOct 8 · 15:50A. Kubiak1.4091111982P. Gesiarz2.75118611113WOct 6 · 02:20J. Michalik2.1061060A. Kubiak1.661112113WOct 6 · 01:35A. Staniczek3.2812380A. Kubiak1.241411113WOct 5 · 23:35J. Cyndera1.95691221A. Kubiak1.75111110113LOct 5 · 22:50A. Zmijewski1.3411911113A. Kubiak3.00411651WOct 5 · 21:10M. Machelski2.70961161A. Kubiak1.4011118113WOct 5 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.201061151A. Kubiak1.5712116113WOct 5 · 19:35A. Staniczek4.00913861A. Kubiak1.22111111113
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