TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gesiarz vs Andrzej Szurgot 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesOSP 1 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118811112––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timePiotr Gesiarz to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Andrzej Szurgot below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 69 set 4, 11-2 · our read held Piotr Gesiarz at 69.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 1–1 Andrzej Szurgot Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:5469.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Gesiarz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1418 vs Szurgot 1144
Gesiarz
Correct
both rated, 273 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 60% vs Szurgot 40%
Gesiarz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 80% vs Szurgot 30%
Gesiarz
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz -1 · Szurgot +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Gesiarz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 1.40 / Szurgot 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Gesiarz)-2.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13274499
Gesiarz1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite62% won 81 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it77% 71 of 92
Szurgot2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog19% won 25 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back11% 10 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGesiarz1wins
AwaySzurgot1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGesiarzSzurgotG − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match36.037.5−1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzSzurgotBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 379 vs 33 / 15347.8%21.6%181 / 379 vs 33 / 153Avg sets wonper match2.01.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.131.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GesiarzGesiarz 1.40/Szurgot 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Gesiarz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gesiarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 27 · 02:10P. Gesiarz361111143A. Szurgot2989120
LSep 26 · 20:05P. Gesiarz361241281A. Szurgot46101114113
P. Gesiarz10
LOct 10 · 17:45P. Gesiarz2.38117561M. Lewczuk1.5381111113WOct 10 · 16:15P. Gesiarz1.3311117113D. Maszczynski3.25831161WOct 10 · 15:00P. Gesiarz2.751111113A. Fomin1.408580WOct 8 · 19:40A. Skupinski3.00411501P. Gesiarz1.3611911113LOct 8 · 18:55A. Zmijewski1.531111113P. Gesiarz2.387550WOct 8 · 18:10P. Gesiarz2.6311911113H. Tkaczyk1.44711661WOct 8 · 16:35P. Gesiarz2.381111113Z. Nocun1.538970WOct 8 · 15:50A. Kubiak1.4091111982P. Gesiarz2.75118611113WOct 7 · 22:20P. Gesiarz1.541111113A. Skupinski2.257950WOct 7 · 21:05P. Gesiarz1.651113113D. Bartosik2.1061190
A. Szurgot10
WOct 10 · 19:40D. Maszczynski1.916360A. Szurgot1.801111113WOct 10 · 18:10A. Szurgot2.50911137113D. Pyrek1.50119111172WOct 10 · 16:35A. Szurgot4.3311611113A. Fomin1.20311531LOct 10 · 15:50M. Lewczuk1.221111113A. Szurgot4.009590LOct 5 · 02:10G. Mucha1.301116113A. Szurgot3.4081490LOct 5 · 01:25A. Staniczek1.171211113A. Szurgot4.5010990WOct 4 · 23:20Z. Nocun1.07101181192A. Szurgot7.50126118113LOct 4 · 22:35K. Kwiatkowski1.671111123A. Szurgot2.1086100LOct 4 · 21:00J. Michalik1.53811117113A. Szurgot2.3811671162LOct 4 · 20:05G. Mucha1.36411138113A. Szurgot3.00116111162
Upcoming Matches
P. Gesiarz
A. Szurgot
Oct 10 · 21:00A. Szurgot3.70A. Fomin1.25—Oct 10 · 22:10A. Szurgot—D. Maszczynski——Oct 10 · 23:45A. Szurgot4.00M. Lewczuk1.22—Oct 11 · 01:00A. Szurgot2.75P. Gesiarz1.40—Oct 11 · 02:35A. Szurgot—D. Pyrek——Oct 11 · 15:00A. Szurgot—M. Kumor——Oct 11 · 16:15A. Szurgot—K. Kwiatkowski——Oct 11 · 17:45A. Szurgot—G. Mucha——Oct 11 · 18:55A. Szurgot—A. Kubiak——Oct 11 · 20:30A. Szurgot—A. Fomin——
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