TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Nocun vs Andrzej Szurgot 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012116811118911
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched: 90.3% is still 90.3%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
90.3%
90.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Andrzej Szurgot below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 90.3%
97 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 1–0 Andrzej Szurgot Andrzej Szurgot has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Nocun beat Szurgot 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:1690.3%Our read93.4%to break even at 1.071
short by 3.1pp93.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.071 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.07 (88%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1477 vs Szurgot 1127
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 350 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 60% vs Szurgot 0%
Nocun
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 80% vs Szurgot 10%
Nocun
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +2 · Szurgot -7
Szurgot
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 90% · Strong (leans Nocun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szurgot form (0%) is below what odds imply (13%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.071 / Szurgot 7.50
Signal prob.90% / 10%
Edge (Nocun)-3.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13244101
Nocun1.07
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 334 of 503
Up 2–0, closes it94% 166 of 177
Up 1–0, closes it86% 244 of 284
Szurgot7.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog20% won 24 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back11% 10 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNocun1wins
AwaySzurgot0wins
Nocun leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNocunSzurgotN − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.023.0+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunSzurgotBasisWin rate · lifetime724 / 1206 vs 30 / 14760%20.4%724 / 1206 vs 30 / 147Avg sets wonper match2.21.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.631.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.07/Szurgot 7.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
90.3%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szurgot won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 4 · 17:20Z. Nocun351311113A. Szurgot2311570
Z. Nocun10
LOct 5 · 01:45Z. Nocun1.6191170K. Kwiatkowski2.201113113WOct 5 · 00:35Z. Nocun1.5371111113G. Mucha2.38116981WOct 4 · 22:10J. Michalik2.63111211892Z. Nocun1.44914711113WOct 4 · 21:20Z. Nocun1.3311111113113A. Staniczek3.25135131182LOct 4 · 19:40Z. Nocun2.1041111792H. Tkaczyk1.67116611113LOct 4 · 18:30Z. Nocun1.61115781G. Mucha2.2091111113WOct 4 · 17:20Z. Nocun1.361311113A. Szurgot3.0011570WOct 4 · 16:15K. Kwiatkowski2.2012151071Z. Nocun1.61101712113WOct 4 · 15:25Z. Nocun1.33841111113A. Staniczek3.2511118742WOct 2 · 02:10A. Krezel2.007530Z. Nocun1.731111113
A. Szurgot10
LOct 5 · 01:25A. Staniczek1.171211113A. Szurgot4.5010990LOct 4 · 22:35K. Kwiatkowski1.671111123A. Szurgot2.1086100LOct 4 · 21:00J. Michalik1.53811117113A. Szurgot2.3811671162LOct 4 · 20:05G. Mucha1.36411138113A. Szurgot3.00116111162LOct 4 · 19:20A. Staniczek1.731111113A. Szurgot2.007440LOct 4 · 17:20Z. Nocun1.361311113A. Szurgot3.0011570LOct 4 · 16:35H. Tkaczyk1.021111113A. Szurgot11.003770LOct 4 · 15:00K. Kwiatkowski1.671111123A. Szurgot2.1047100WOct 4 · 02:45M. Baran1.28712121282A. Szurgot3.4011101014113LOct 4 · 01:35A. Szurgot3.101191081A. Kubiak1.3081112113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.