TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Henryk Tkaczyk vs Andrzej Szurgot 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113117117––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:25 and never touched: 92.9% is still 92.9%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
92.9%
92.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingHenryk Tkaczyk above · Andrzej Szurgot below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 92.9%
50 points played in total.
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 2–0 Andrzej Szurgot Andrzej Szurgot has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2592.9%Our read98.0%to break even at 1.02
short by 5.1pp98.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.02 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.02 (92%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1512 vs Szurgot 1168
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 344 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 100% vs Szurgot 20%
Tkaczyk
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Szurgot 30%
Tkaczyk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +5 · Szurgot -1
Tkaczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 93% · Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szurgot form (20%) outperforms what odds imply (9%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.02 / Szurgot 11.00
Signal prob.93% / 7%
Edge (Tkaczyk)-5.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243131
Tkaczyk1.02
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite70% won 410 of 590
Up 2–0, closes it93% 228 of 245
Up 1–0, closes it85% 314 of 369
Szurgot11.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog20% won 24 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back11% 10 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTkaczyk2wins
AwaySzurgot0wins
Tkaczyk leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTkaczykSzurgotT − SBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.018.0+15.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykSzurgotBasisWin rate · lifetime1021 / 1501 vs 30 / 14168%21.3%1021 / 1501 vs 30 / 141Avg sets wonper match2.41.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.731.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.02/Szurgot 11.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
92.9%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 28 · 00:10H. Tkaczyk331111113A. Szurgot246990
WSep 27 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk331111113A. Szurgot125610
H. Tkaczyk10
WOct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha3.409280H. Tkaczyk1.301111113WOct 4 · 08:00W. Jozala3.858760H. Tkaczyk1.231111113WOct 4 · 07:10W. Pytlas2.50118991H. Tkaczyk1.4751111113WOct 4 · 06:25H. Tkaczyk1.80112115113K. Juszczyk1.9291141192WOct 4 · 04:50H. Tkaczyk1.9011117113P. Zemla1.75981191LOct 4 · 04:00M. Koczyba—1051111113H. Tkaczyk—12116992WOct 3 · 05:05K. Kowalski6.00811961H. Tkaczyk1.1111411113WOct 3 · 03:55H. Tkaczyk—1111113A. Ruszkiewicz—8770WOct 3 · 02:45R. Wiza—77110H. Tkaczyk—1111133LOct 3 · 01:30J. Michalski—11114113H. Tkaczyk—881171
A. Szurgot10
LOct 4 · 17:20Z. Nocun1.361311113A. Szurgot3.0011570LOct 4 · 15:00K. Kwiatkowski1.671111123A. Szurgot2.1047100WOct 4 · 02:45M. Baran1.28712121282A. Szurgot3.4011101014113LOct 4 · 01:35A. Szurgot3.101191081A. Kubiak1.3081112113LOct 4 · 00:25C. Pawlik1.1511711113A. Szurgot5.00711251LOct 3 · 23:10J. Skorupa1.331110118113A. Szurgot3.0021261172LOct 3 · 21:35J. Oracz1.0911118123A. Szurgot7.507811101LOct 3 · 20:45C. Pawlik1.141111113A. Szurgot5.257790WOct 3 · 19:35A. Szurgot2.75411139113A. Kubiak1.37114111132WOct 3 · 18:25M. Baran1.32118111192A. Szurgot3.05131195113
Upcoming Matches
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A. Szurgot
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