TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Zbigniew Nocun vs Grzegorz Mucha 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119511711811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:01 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Nocun above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 64.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Nocun 15–7 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0164.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
clears by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nocun
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-7 in 22
Nocun
Wrong
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nocun 1487 vs Mucha 1408
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nocun 100% vs Mucha 60%
Nocun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nocun 70% vs Mucha 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nocun +6 · Mucha +1
Nocun
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Nocun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNocun 1.615 / Mucha 2.20
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Nocun)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13239151
Nocun1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 334 of 503
Up 2–0, closes it94% 166 of 177
Up 1–0, closes it86% 244 of 284
Mucha2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 60 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back17% 16 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNocun7wins
AwayMucha3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNocun71.4%5 of 7
AwayMucha33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nocun7Mucha3n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S2Nocun6Mucha4n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S3Nocun4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S4Nocun6Mucha2n = 8Nocun took 6 of 8
S5Nocun2Mucha2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNocunMuchaN − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.037.3+3.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNocunMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime722 / 1202 vs 187 / 37360.1%50.1%722 / 1202 vs 187 / 373Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NocunNocun 1.61/Mucha 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 22:35Z. Nocun47861111113G. Mucha4211113892
WSep 30 · 15:00Z. Nocun4111118113G. Mucha28461171
LSep 24 · 23:55Z. Nocun236890G. Mucha331111113
WSep 24 · 17:55Z. Nocun4211911113G. Mucha27411931
WSep 21 · 02:35Z. Nocun51711148113G. Mucha46119121132
WSep 20 · 18:10Z. Nocun3811115113G. Mucha37981191
WSep 18 · 02:10Z. Nocun4013115113G. Mucha371171181
LSep 17 · 20:05Z. Nocun45123711122G. Mucha551011119143
WSep 15 · 01:30Z. Nocun381111163G. Mucha2446140
LSep 14 · 20:05Z. Nocun4511116892G. Mucha44831111113
Z. Nocun10
WOct 4 · 17:20Z. Nocun1.361311113A. Szurgot3.0011570WOct 4 · 16:15K. Kwiatkowski2.2012151071Z. Nocun1.61101712113WOct 4 · 15:25Z. Nocun1.33841111113A. Staniczek3.2511118742WOct 2 · 02:10A. Krezel2.007530Z. Nocun1.731111113WOct 2 · 01:25A. Barton7.50881171Z. Nocun1.0711112113WOct 1 · 23:20A. Skupinski2.2563111152Z. Nocun1.57111189113LOct 1 · 22:35A. Fomin2.0011138133Z. Nocun1.7361111111LOct 1 · 21:00M. Leczycki1.57411811123Z. Nocun2.25119118102LOct 1 · 20:05A. Krezel1.67111213113Z. Nocun2.109101561WOct 1 · 19:20A. Barton7.50611781Z. Nocun1.0711311113
G. Mucha10
WOct 4 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski2.006170G. Mucha1.731111113LOct 4 · 16:55G. Mucha1.50991371A. Staniczek2.50111111113LOct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha3.409280H. Tkaczyk1.301111113WOct 4 · 01:45P. Gesiarz2.25651181G. Mucha1.5711111113WOct 4 · 01:00D. Pyrek2.506770G. Mucha1.461111113WOct 4 · 00:10G. Mucha2.2091211133A. Fomin1.6111109111WOct 3 · 22:35G. Mucha1.80111179113M. Karpiuk1.9197111152LOct 3 · 21:45D. Maszczynski4.0013138113G. Mucha1.2211111191WOct 3 · 20:30G. Mucha2.631111113A. Fomin1.448380WOct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha1.441111113D. Pyrek2.635360
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