TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Mucha vs Andriej Fomin 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118113118––––
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched: 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Andriej Fomin at 68.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 4–8 Andriej Fomin Grzegorz Mucha has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2568.5%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 0.8pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Fomin
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1377 vs Fomin 1478
Fomin
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 60% vs Fomin 100%
Fomin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 40% vs Fomin 100%
Fomin
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha +1 · Fomin +10
Fomin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Fomin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 2.625 / Fomin 1.444
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Fomin)-0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13238978
Mucha2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 58 of 166
Down 0–1, comes back16% 15 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 61
Fomin1.44
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite72% won 301 of 418
Up 2–0, closes it98% 166 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it90% 231 of 257
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMucha4wins
AwayFomin6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha40%2 of 5
AwayFomin60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S2Mucha4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S3Mucha4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S4Mucha4Fomin5n = 9Fomin took 5 of 9
S5Mucha2Fomin2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMuchaFominM − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.143.0−3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaFominBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 364 vs 578 / 98249.7%58.9%181 / 364 vs 578 / 982Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FominMucha 2.63/Fomin 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 23:55G. Mucha45111310113A. Fomin377111271
LSep 29 · 17:55G. Mucha4486111272A. Fomin491111610113
LSep 27 · 00:00G. Mucha4211151151A. Fomin4871713113
LSep 26 · 16:00G. Mucha511413311102A. Fomin5912111113123
WAug 23 · 02:20G. Mucha44111111113A. Fomin33137941
WAug 22 · 20:20G. Mucha45117115113A. Fomin4791181182
LJul 9 · 22:55G. Mucha33711871A. Fomin4011711113
LJul 9 · 16:55G. Mucha125250A. Fomin331111113
LJul 9 · 01:00G. Mucha27115381A. Fomin3961111113
WJul 8 · 18:55G. Mucha485101111113A. Fomin4511129942
G. Mucha10
WOct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha1.441111113D. Pyrek2.635360LOct 3 · 17:45G. Mucha1.22101111992D. Maszczynski4.00127911113LOct 3 · 16:15G. Mucha1.57111113982P. Gesiarz2.25391511113WOct 3 · 15:00G. Mucha1.67411117113M. Karpiuk2.1011971162WOct 1 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.53211671G. Mucha2.3811911113LOct 1 · 01:00H. Tkaczyk1.331111113G. Mucha3.259970LOct 1 · 00:10G. Mucha1.837490J. Skorupa1.831111113LSep 30 · 22:35G. Mucha2.3811113892Z. Nocun1.53861111113LSep 30 · 21:45M. Machelski2.20715912173G. Mucha1.6111131110152WSep 30 · 20:30G. Mucha1.80111169113J. Skorupa1.9167111182
A. Fomin10
WOct 3 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2.7571170A. Fomin1.401113113WOct 3 · 19:20A. Fomin1.83117119113M. Karpiuk1.8361161192WOct 3 · 18:10D. Pyrek2.2551111892A. Fomin1.57117911113WOct 3 · 16:55D. Maszczynski5.00111141162A. Fomin1.14139119113WOct 3 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.63411681A. Fomin1.4411511113WOct 2 · 01:45A. Skupinski2.6381060A. Fomin1.441112113WOct 2 · 01:00M. Leczycki1.91661161A. Fomin1.8011119113WOct 2 · 00:10A. Fomin1.084111110113A. Barton7.0011391252WOct 1 · 22:35A. Fomin2.0011138133Z. Nocun1.7361111111WOct 1 · 21:45A. Krezel1.80811611142A. Fomin1.91119116163
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Oct 3 · 22:35G. Mucha1.80M. Karpiuk1.91—Oct 4 · 00:10G. Mucha2.63A. Fomin1.44—Oct 4 · 01:00G. Mucha—D. Pyrek——Oct 4 · 01:45G. Mucha1.61P. Gesiarz2.20—Oct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha—H. Tkaczyk——Oct 4 · 16:55G. Mucha—A. Staniczek——Oct 4 · 17:45G. Mucha—K. Kwiatkowski——Oct 4 · 18:30G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——Oct 4 · 20:05G. Mucha—A. Szurgot——Oct 4 · 21:45G. Mucha—K. Kwiatkowski——
A. Fomin
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