TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Mucha vs Mateusz Karpiuk 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411119117711116
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 13–9 Mateusz Karpiuk Mateusz Karpiuk has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5454.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-9 in 22
Mucha
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1381 vs Karpiuk 1485
Karpiuk
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 20% vs Karpiuk 100%
Karpiuk
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 40% vs Karpiuk 70%
Karpiuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha +1 · Karpiuk +5
Karpiuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mucha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.666 / Karpiuk 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mucha)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232989
Mucha1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 110 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it98% 55 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 74 of 96
Karpiuk2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 72 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMucha5wins
AwayKarpiuk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha40%2 of 5
AwayKarpiuk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha5Karpiuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Mucha5Karpiuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Mucha4Karpiuk6n = 10Karpiuk took 6 of 10
S4Mucha7Karpiuk1n = 8Mucha took 7 of 8
S5Mucha1Karpiuk3n = 4Karpiuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMuchaKarpiukM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.3+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 360 vs 154 / 33249.7%46.4%179 / 360 vs 154 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.67/Karpiuk 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 21:00G. Mucha4291111113M. Karpiuk27113671
LSep 14 · 16:35G. Mucha381297101M. Karpiuk44101111123
LSep 13 · 21:00G. Mucha4111641192M. Karpiuk45811114113
WSep 13 · 16:35G. Mucha351111133M. Karpiuk2889110
WAug 23 · 22:35G. Mucha538111111123M. Karpiuk50118138102
LAug 23 · 15:00G. Mucha49117615102M. Karpiuk525111113123
WAug 18 · 00:50G. Mucha3712113113M. Karpiuk331061161
LAug 17 · 19:20G. Mucha196670M. Karpiuk331111113
WAug 17 · 01:25G. Mucha3631111113M. Karpiuk28119531
LAug 16 · 19:20G. Mucha49813111162M. Karpiuk53111597113
G. Mucha10
WOct 1 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.53211671G. Mucha2.3811911113LOct 1 · 01:00H. Tkaczyk1.331111113G. Mucha3.259970LOct 1 · 00:10G. Mucha1.837490J. Skorupa1.831111113LSep 30 · 22:35G. Mucha2.3811113892Z. Nocun1.53861111113LSep 30 · 21:45M. Machelski2.20715912173G. Mucha1.6111131110152WSep 30 · 20:30G. Mucha1.80111169113J. Skorupa1.9167111182WSep 30 · 18:55G. Mucha1.57111111113A. Skupinski2.25139671WSep 30 · 17:45G. Mucha1.6112118113M. Machelski2.201071161LSep 30 · 16:15G. Mucha2.203530M. Lewczuk1.611111113LSep 30 · 15:00G. Mucha2.25461171Z. Nocun1.5711118113
M. Karpiuk10
WSep 25 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski1.83116611102M. Karpiuk1.83711116123WSep 25 · 01:25M. Karpiuk1.67111167113J. Michalik2.1055111162WSep 25 · 00:10M. Guzik1.25981261M. Karpiuk3.75111110113WSep 24 · 22:55J. Skorupa2.001111991M. Karpiuk1.7361311113WSep 24 · 21:20A. Fomin1.6181070M. Karpiuk2.201112113LSep 24 · 20:30M. Guzik1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75811771LSep 24 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.251091491J. Michalik1.33121112113LSep 24 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski1.9111118113M. Karpiuk1.80891181WSep 24 · 16:55J. Skorupa1.83111179102M. Karpiuk1.83441111123WSep 24 · 15:25A. Fomin1.6728111162M. Karpiuk2.10111186113
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Oct 3 · 16:15G. Mucha1.61P. Gesiarz2.20—Oct 3 · 17:45G. Mucha1.22D. Maszczynski4.00—Oct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha1.44D. Pyrek2.63—Oct 3 · 20:30G. Mucha2.63A. Fomin1.44—Oct 3 · 21:45G. Mucha1.22D. Maszczynski4.00—Oct 3 · 22:35G. Mucha1.67M. Karpiuk2.10—Oct 4 · 00:10G. Mucha2.63A. Fomin1.44—Oct 4 · 01:00G. Mucha—D. Pyrek——Oct 4 · 01:45G. Mucha1.61P. Gesiarz2.20—Oct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha—H. Tkaczyk——
M. Karpiuk
Oct 3 · 16:35M. Karpiuk1.50D. Pyrek2.50—Oct 3 · 17:20M. Karpiuk1.73P. Gesiarz2.00—Oct 3 · 19:20M. Karpiuk1.83A. Fomin1.83—Oct 3 · 20:05M. Karpiuk1.28D. Maszczynski3.50—Oct 3 · 21:00M. Karpiuk—D. Pyrek——Oct 3 · 22:35M. Karpiuk2.10G. Mucha1.67—Oct 3 · 23:20M. Karpiuk1.73P. Gesiarz2.00—Oct 4 · 01:25M. Karpiuk—A. Fomin——Oct 4 · 02:10M. Karpiuk—D. Maszczynski——
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