TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Henryk Tkaczyk vs Grzegorz Mucha 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:43 and never touched: 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingHenryk Tkaczyk above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 73.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 10–2 Grzegorz Mucha Grzegorz Mucha has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:4373.3%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 1.7pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1482 vs Mucha 1370
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 80% vs Mucha 40%
Tkaczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 70% vs Mucha 50%
Tkaczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +3 · Mucha -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Tkaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.333 / Mucha 3.25
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Tkaczyk)-1.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13221235
Tkaczyk1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 402 of 581
Up 2–0, closes it93% 222 of 239
Up 1–0, closes it85% 306 of 361
Mucha3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 56 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk8wins
AwayMucha2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk87.5%7 of 8
AwayMuchan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk8Mucha2n = 10Tkaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Tkaczyk7Mucha3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Tkaczyk7Mucha3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Tkaczyk3Mucha2n = 5Tkaczyk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykMuchaT − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.228.6+7.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime1019 / 1504 vs 178 / 35967.8%49.6%1019 / 1504 vs 178 / 359Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.33/Mucha 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 01:00H. Tkaczyk331111113G. Mucha259970
LSep 28 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk35711981G. Mucha4211911113
WSep 27 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk46411911113G. Mucha4111411782
WSep 25 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk3711411113G. Mucha30511681
LAug 24 · 00:10H. Tkaczyk371168121G. Mucha4261111143
WAug 23 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk331111113G. Mucha183870
WJul 14 · 01:50H. Tkaczyk331111113G. Mucha176740
WJul 13 · 20:05H. Tkaczyk4211911113G. Mucha28211871
WJul 13 · 02:10H. Tkaczyk331111113G. Mucha213990
WJul 12 · 20:05H. Tkaczyk331111113G. Mucha229940
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 30 · 23:45H. Tkaczyk1.50111112113M. Machelski2.50591481WSep 30 · 22:10H. Tkaczyk1.501112143M. Lewczuk2.50410120WSep 30 · 21:00H. Tkaczyk1.73121195113Z. Nocun2.00104111162LSep 29 · 01:10M. Lewczuk2.381311113H. Tkaczyk1.5311850WSep 29 · 00:30A. Barton5.501061171H. Tkaczyk1.1312118113WSep 28 · 23:50H. Tkaczyk1.40691111113K. Kwiatkowski2.7511116882LSep 28 · 22:30H. Tkaczyk1.7386121172Z. Nocun2.001111106113WSep 28 · 21:45A. Krezel2.5011117382H. Tkaczyk1.50671111113LSep 28 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk1.33881191K. Kwiatkowski3.2511116113WSep 28 · 18:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511611113A. Skupinski3.75711861
G. Mucha10
LOct 1 · 00:10G. Mucha1.837490J. Skorupa1.831111113LSep 30 · 22:35G. Mucha2.3811113892Z. Nocun1.53861111113LSep 30 · 21:45M. Machelski2.20715912173G. Mucha1.6111131110152WSep 30 · 20:30G. Mucha1.80111169113J. Skorupa1.9167111182WSep 30 · 18:55G. Mucha1.57111111113A. Skupinski2.25139671WSep 30 · 17:45G. Mucha1.6112118113M. Machelski2.201071161LSep 30 · 16:15G. Mucha2.203530M. Lewczuk1.611111113LSep 30 · 15:00G. Mucha2.25461171Z. Nocun1.5711118113WSep 30 · 05:05J. Michalik1.821012581G. Mucha1.88121011113WSep 30 · 03:55G. Mucha1.6091111113J. Skorupa2.20118691
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