TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Henryk Tkaczyk vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210114911511116
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:57 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingHenryk Tkaczyk above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 54.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 57–45 Zbigniew Nocun Zbigniew Nocun has won 45 of their 102 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5754.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
57-45 in 102
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 12 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1441 vs Nocun 1475
Nocun
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 60% vs Nocun 80%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 70% vs Nocun 90%
Nocun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk -1 · Nocun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Tkaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.727 / Nocun 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tkaczyk)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13217086
Tkaczyk1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 402 of 581
Up 2–0, closes it93% 222 of 239
Up 1–0, closes it85% 306 of 361
Nocun2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 68 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk5wins
AwayNocun5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayNocun100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk6Nocun4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Tkaczyk5Nocun5n = 10split evenly
S3Tkaczyk4Nocun6n = 10Nocun took 6 of 10
S4Tkaczyk5Nocun3n = 8Tkaczyk took 5 of 8
S5Tkaczyk2Nocun3n = 5Nocun took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykNocunT − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.539.7−1.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime1023 / 1512 vs 710 / 118467.7%60%1023 / 1512 vs 710 / 1184Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.73/Nocun 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 22:30H. Tkaczyk4486121172Z. Nocun491111106113
WSep 28 · 15:00H. Tkaczyk341111123Z. Nocun2798100
LSep 25 · 00:45H. Tkaczyk4381181152Z. Nocun49119117113
LAug 31 · 23:30H. Tkaczyk249780Z. Nocun331111113
WAug 31 · 15:50H. Tkaczyk4111118113Z. Nocun32961161
LAug 27 · 23:20H. Tkaczyk28116291Z. Nocun4071111113
WAug 27 · 17:20H. Tkaczyk4111118113Z. Nocun27351181
LAug 26 · 23:20H. Tkaczyk3931311752Z. Nocun501111611113
WAug 26 · 17:20H. Tkaczyk50117119123Z. Nocun46611811102
WAug 20 · 21:00H. Tkaczyk41116211113Z. Nocun4461111882
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 30 · 22:10H. Tkaczyk1.501112143M. Lewczuk2.50410120LSep 29 · 01:10M. Lewczuk2.381311113H. Tkaczyk1.5311850WSep 29 · 00:30A. Barton5.501061171H. Tkaczyk1.1312118113WSep 28 · 23:50H. Tkaczyk1.40691111113K. Kwiatkowski2.7511116882LSep 28 · 22:30H. Tkaczyk1.7386121172Z. Nocun2.001111106113WSep 28 · 21:45A. Krezel2.5011117382H. Tkaczyk1.50671111113LSep 28 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk1.33881191K. Kwiatkowski3.2511116113WSep 28 · 18:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511611113A. Skupinski3.75711861WSep 28 · 17:45H. Tkaczyk1.531111113A. Krezel2.385370WSep 28 · 16:15H. Tkaczyk1.57612114113M. Lewczuk2.25111051142
Z. Nocun10
WSep 30 · 20:05M. Machelski2.00111171032Z. Nocun1.73991112113LSep 30 · 19:20J. Skorupa2.1011136113Z. Nocun1.678111171WSep 30 · 17:20M. Lewczuk2.3871090Z. Nocun1.531112113WSep 30 · 16:35A. Skupinski2.631151110112Z. Nocun1.44711812133WSep 30 · 15:00G. Mucha2.25461171Z. Nocun1.5711118113WSep 29 · 01:30A. Krezel2.1088130Z. Nocun1.671111153WSep 29 · 00:50K. Kwiatkowski2.2011117382Z. Nocun1.61881111113WSep 28 · 23:10M. Lewczuk2.25113761Z. Nocun1.5791111113WSep 28 · 22:30H. Tkaczyk1.7386121172Z. Nocun2.001111106113WSep 28 · 21:00A. Barton6.5061180Z. Nocun1.101113113
Upcoming Matches
H. Tkaczyk
Z. Nocun
Sep 30 · 23:20Z. Nocun1.44M. Lewczuk2.63—Oct 1 · 01:25Z. Nocun1.53J. Skorupa2.38—Oct 1 · 02:10Z. Nocun1.73M. Machelski2.00—Oct 1 · 15:00Z. Nocun—A. Fomin——Oct 1 · 17:20Z. Nocun—A. Skupinski——Oct 1 · 19:20Z. Nocun—A. Barton——Oct 1 · 20:05Z. Nocun—A. Krezel——Oct 1 · 22:35Z. Nocun—A. Fomin——Oct 1 · 23:20Z. Nocun—A. Skupinski——Oct 2 · 01:25Z. Nocun—A. Barton——
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