TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Henryk Tkaczyk vs Andrzej Krezel 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115113117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:40 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHenryk Tkaczyk above · Andrzej Krezel below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 48 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 58.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Henryk Tkaczyk 8–9 Andrzej Krezel Henryk Tkaczyk has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:40What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkaczyk 1443 vs Krezel 1472
Krezel
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkaczyk 60% vs Krezel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkaczyk 70% vs Krezel 50%
Tkaczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkaczyk +2 · Krezel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Tkaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krezel form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkaczyk 1.53 / Krezel 2.38
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Tkaczyk)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13207117
Tkaczyk1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 401 of 580
Up 2–0, closes it93% 224 of 241
Up 1–0, closes it85% 307 of 363
Krezel2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 60 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back13% 14 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkaczyk6wins
AwayKrezel4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkaczyk85.7%6 of 7
AwayKrezel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkaczyk7Krezel3n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Tkaczyk6Krezel4n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Tkaczyk4Krezel6n = 10Krezel took 6 of 10
S4Tkaczyk4Krezel3n = 7Tkaczyk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkaczykKrezelT − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.535.3+2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkaczykKrezelBasisWin rate · lifetime1018 / 1504 vs 100 / 26267.7%38.2%1018 / 1504 vs 100 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.41.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.735.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykTkaczyk 1.53/Krezel 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 02:35H. Tkaczyk31771161A. Krezel4111118113
LSep 27 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk203980A. Krezel331111113
LSep 18 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk32911661A. Krezel4011711113
LSep 9 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk47111171082A. Krezel49961112113
WSep 8 · 20:45H. Tkaczyk4111118113A. Krezel27441181
WSep 5 · 21:35H. Tkaczyk45111111123A. Krezel365138101
WSep 5 · 15:35H. Tkaczyk471131111113A. Krezel4341113962
WSep 4 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk4011126113A. Krezel349101141
WSep 3 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk331111113A. Krezel175750
WAug 27 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk391314123A. Krezel331112100
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 28 · 16:15H. Tkaczyk1.57612114113M. Lewczuk2.25111051142WSep 28 · 15:00H. Tkaczyk1.611111123Z. Nocun2.2098100LSep 28 · 02:35A. Krezel2.5011118113H. Tkaczyk1.50771161LSep 28 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk1.30711981G. Mucha3.4011911113WSep 28 · 00:10A. Szurgot10.006990H. Tkaczyk1.031111113WSep 27 · 22:55A. Kubiak2.63891171H. Tkaczyk1.4411118113WSep 27 · 21:20M. Lewczuk2.258111481H. Tkaczyk1.5711516113WSep 27 · 20:30A. Szurgot4.505610H. Tkaczyk1.171111113WSep 27 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.25411911113G. Mucha3.7511411782LSep 27 · 18:10A. Krezel3.001111113H. Tkaczyk1.363980
A. Krezel10
WSep 28 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.739770A. Krezel2.001111113LSep 28 · 16:55A. Krezel1.91891181K. Kwiatkowski1.8011111113WSep 28 · 15:50A. Krezel1.33111189113A. Skupinski3.2597111182WSep 28 · 02:35A. Krezel2.5011118113H. Tkaczyk1.50771161WSep 28 · 01:00A. Krezel1.501111133A. Szurgot2.5087110LSep 27 · 23:45A. Krezel1.40791541A. Kubiak2.75111113113WSep 27 · 22:10A. Krezel2.101311113M. Lewczuk1.6711990LSep 27 · 21:00A. Krezel1.538411101G. Mucha2.3811116123LSep 27 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.5711511113A. Krezel2.25911751WSep 27 · 18:10A. Krezel3.001111113H. Tkaczyk1.363980
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