TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Andrzej Krezel vs Kacper Kwiatkowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811911111811––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrzej Krezel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrzej Krezel above · Kacper Kwiatkowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Andrzej Krezel at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Andrzej Krezel 3–4 Kacper Kwiatkowski Andrzej Krezel has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:36What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krezel 1472 vs Kwiatkowski 1372
Krezel
Wrong
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krezel 80% vs Kwiatkowski 20%
Krezel
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krezel 60% vs Kwiatkowski 30%
Krezel
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krezel +3 · Kwiatkowski -2
Krezel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krezel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrezel 1.91 / Kwiatkowski 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krezel)+5.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13207235
Krezel1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 60 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back13% 14 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 68
Kwiatkowski1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it78% 39 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKrezel3wins
AwayKwiatkowski4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrezel66.7%2 of 3
AwayKwiatkowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krezel3Kwiatkowski4n = 7Kwiatkowski took 4 of 7
S2Krezel2Kwiatkowski5n = 7Kwiatkowski took 5 of 7
S3Krezel4Kwiatkowski3n = 7Krezel took 4 of 7
S4Krezel2Kwiatkowski2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricKrezelKwiatkowskiKrezel − KwiatkowskiBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match37.337.0+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrezelKwiatkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 262 vs 136 / 31238.2%43.6%100 / 262 vs 136 / 312Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrezelKrezel 1.91/Kwiatkowski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Krezel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 28 · 16:55A. Krezel36891181K. Kwiatkowski3411111113
WSep 18 · 03:05A. Krezel361111143K. Kwiatkowski2374120
WSep 17 · 21:05A. Krezel56911812163K. Kwiatkowski531171110142
LAug 26 · 03:55A. Krezel235990K. Kwiatkowski331111113
LAug 25 · 21:55A. Krezel43116111052K. Kwiatkowski48811612113
LAug 24 · 22:50A. Krezel257990K. Kwiatkowski331111113
WAug 24 · 16:55A. Krezel4211811123K. Kwiatkowski357117101
A. Krezel10
LSep 28 · 17:45H. Tkaczyk1.531111113A. Krezel2.385370WSep 28 · 15:50A. Krezel1.33111189113A. Skupinski3.2597111182WSep 28 · 02:35A. Krezel2.5011118113H. Tkaczyk1.50771161WSep 28 · 01:00A. Krezel1.501111133A. Szurgot2.5087110LSep 27 · 23:45A. Krezel1.40791541A. Kubiak2.75111113113WSep 27 · 22:10A. Krezel2.101311113M. Lewczuk1.6711990LSep 27 · 21:00A. Krezel1.538411101G. Mucha2.3811116123LSep 27 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.5711511113A. Krezel2.25911751LSep 27 · 18:55A. Szurgot3.4011611133A. Krezel1.306119111WSep 27 · 18:10A. Krezel3.001111113H. Tkaczyk1.363980
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 28 · 15:25M. Lewczuk1.9171111113K. Kwiatkowski1.80113891LSep 27 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski1.401111121162K. Malcher2.75136146113WSep 27 · 01:00K. Kwiatkowski1.671113113J. Michalik2.1051190LSep 26 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.57911561P. Gesiarz2.2511911113LSep 26 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski2.101017111292J. Slawomir1.671215614113LSep 26 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski1.570890A. Szurgot2.251111113WSep 26 · 19:40J. Slawomir1.6747110K. Kwiatkowski2.101111133LSep 26 · 18:55J. Michalik2.0013811113K. Kwiatkowski1.731111671WSep 26 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski1.441111113K. Malcher2.636980LSep 26 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski1.2571161162A. Szurgot3.75115119113
Upcoming Matches
A. Krezel
K. Kwiatkowski
Sep 28 · 19:20K. Kwiatkowski2.63Z. Nocun1.44—Sep 28 · 20:30K. Kwiatkowski3.25H. Tkaczyk1.33—Sep 28 · 21:20K. Kwiatkowski1.83M. Lewczuk1.83—Sep 28 · 22:50K. Kwiatkowski1.73A. Krezel2.00—Sep 28 · 23:50K. Kwiatkowski3.25H. Tkaczyk1.33—Sep 29 · 00:50K. Kwiatkowski2.63Z. Nocun1.44—Sep 29 · 01:50K. Kwiatkowski1.22A. Barton4.00—
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