TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Andrzej Szurgot 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
011811911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:21 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Andrzej Szurgot below
Set 1 · 0-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 50 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 57.2%
50 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 0–2 Andrzej Szurgot Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Szurgot beat Kwiatkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:21What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1295 vs Szurgot 1241
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Szurgot 80%
Szurgot
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 50% vs Szurgot 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski +1 · Szurgot +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szurgot form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.57 / Szurgot 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13200874
Kwiatkowski1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 48 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Szurgot2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog15% won 14 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski0wins
AwaySzurgot2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderSzurgot leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiSzurgotK − SBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match29.040.0−11.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiSzurgotBasisWin rate · lifetime135 / 308 vs 24 / 11643.8%20.7%135 / 308 vs 24 / 116Avg sets wonper match1.91.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.930.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.57/Szurgot 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Szurgot won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 26 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski170890A. Szurgot331111113
LSep 26 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski4171161162A. Szurgot47115119113
K. Kwiatkowski10
WSep 26 · 19:40J. Slawomir1.6747110K. Kwiatkowski2.101111133LSep 26 · 18:55J. Michalik2.0013811113K. Kwiatkowski1.731111671WSep 26 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski1.501111113K. Malcher2.506980LSep 26 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski1.2571161162A. Szurgot3.75115119113LSep 26 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.251111113K. Kwiatkowski1.575650LSep 25 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski1.83116611102M. Karpiuk1.83711116123WSep 25 · 01:00K. Kwiatkowski3.501111113M. Guzik1.286990WSep 24 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.671114113J. Skorupa2.1041290LSep 24 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski1.831171431A. Fomin1.8391116113WSep 24 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski1.731511116113J. Michalik2.00131341182
A. Szurgot10
WSep 26 · 20:05P. Gesiarz1.441241281A. Szurgot2.63101114113LSep 26 · 19:20K. Malcher1.361211113A. Szurgot3.0010860WSep 26 · 17:20J. Slawomir1.2261115792A. Szurgot4.001191311113WSep 26 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski1.2571161162A. Szurgot3.75115119113WSep 26 · 15:00J. Michalik1.30124391A. Szurgot3.40101111113LSep 20 · 13:55J. Jesiek1.15111111113A. Szurgot3.85413431LSep 20 · 13:05M. Skuril1.251111113A. Szurgot3.607490WSep 20 · 12:15A. Szurgot4.50111110113W. Buczynski1.17651261LSep 20 · 10:35A. Szurgot8.5085130W. Wojtaszczyk1.051111153LSep 20 · 09:50P. Polok1.0331111113A. Szurgot10.00115751
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
A. Szurgot
Sep 26 · 22:35A. Szurgot2.50J. Michalik1.50—Sep 26 · 23:20A. Szurgot2.50J. Slawomir1.50—Sep 27 · 01:25A. Szurgot2.20K. Malcher1.61—Sep 27 · 02:10A. Szurgot1.91P. Gesiarz1.80—Sep 27 · 15:00A. Szurgot—G. Mucha——Sep 27 · 16:15A. Szurgot—M. Lewczuk——Sep 27 · 17:45A. Szurgot—A. Kubiak——Sep 27 · 18:55A. Szurgot—A. Krezel——Sep 27 · 20:30A. Szurgot—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 27 · 21:45A. Szurgot—A. Kubiak——
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