TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Krzysztof Malcher 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119118––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:22 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeKacper Kwiatkowski to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Krzysztof Malcher below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Kacper Kwiatkowski at 61.6%
56 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 1–2 Krzysztof Malcher Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kwiatkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1339 vs Malcher 1299
Kwiatkowski
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Malcher 20%
Kwiatkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Malcher 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -3 · Malcher -2
Kwiatkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kwiatkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malcher form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.50 / Malcher 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Kwiatkowski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13200838
Kwiatkowski1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 48 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it77% 37 of 48
Malcher2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 28 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back16% 6 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski1wins
AwayMalcher2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMalcher leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski2Malcher1n = 3Kwiatkowski took 2 of 3
S2Kwiatkowski0Malcher3n = 3Malcher took 3 of 3
S3Kwiatkowski1Malcher2n = 3Malcher took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiMalcherK − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.739.0−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiMalcherBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 304 vs 38 / 10743.8%35.5%133 / 304 vs 38 / 107Avg sets wonper match1.91.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.033.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwiatkowskiKwiatkowski 1.50/Malcher 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Kwiatkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kwiatkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 22 · 23:20K. Kwiatkowski203980K. Malcher331111113
LAug 22 · 17:20K. Kwiatkowski54111081692K. Malcher524121114113
WJul 13 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski4211911113K. Malcher32911571
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 26 · 18:55J. Michalik2.0013811113K. Kwiatkowski1.731111671LSep 26 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski1.2571161162A. Szurgot3.75115119113LSep 26 · 15:50P. Gesiarz2.251111113K. Kwiatkowski1.575650LSep 25 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski1.83116611102M. Karpiuk1.83711116123WSep 25 · 01:00K. Kwiatkowski3.501111113M. Guzik1.286990WSep 24 · 23:45K. Kwiatkowski1.671114113J. Skorupa2.1041290LSep 24 · 22:10K. Kwiatkowski1.831171431A. Fomin1.8391116113WSep 24 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski1.731511116113J. Michalik2.00131341182LSep 24 · 19:40A. Fomin1.8311116113K. Kwiatkowski1.83951171LSep 24 · 18:55M. Guzik1.28115139113K. Kwiatkowski3.50211111192
K. Malcher10
LSep 26 · 16:55P. Gesiarz1.73111179113K. Malcher2.0065111172LSep 26 · 15:25J. Slawomir1.57111169113K. Malcher2.2599111182WSep 20 · 02:10D. Maszczynski2.63105110K. Malcher1.441211133LSep 20 · 01:25G. Mucha1.501114123K. Malcher2.50812100LSep 19 · 23:20P. Gesiarz1.731311113K. Malcher2.0011640LSep 19 · 22:35T. Kocik1.101111113K. Malcher6.505960LSep 19 · 21:00J. Oracz1.251111113K. Malcher3.758960WSep 19 · 20:05D. Maszczynski2.6311950K. Malcher1.441311113LSep 19 · 19:20G. Mucha1.505111210133K. Malcher2.501181012112WSep 19 · 17:20P. Gesiarz1.83511119112K. Malcher1.83119311133
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