TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Andrzej Krezel vs Grzegorz Mucha 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8114111161012––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeAndrzej Krezel to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAndrzej Krezel above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 73 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Andrzej Krezel at 63.6%
73 points played in total.
H2H Andrzej Krezel 1–1 Grzegorz Mucha Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Krezel beat Mucha 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Krezel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Krezel 1518 vs Mucha 1331
Krezel
Wrong
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krezel 60% vs Mucha 40%
Krezel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krezel 70% vs Mucha 30%
Krezel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krezel -2 · Mucha +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Krezel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrezel 1.53 / Mucha 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Krezel)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13207022
Krezel1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 31 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Mucha2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 52 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKrezel1wins
AwayMucha1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKrezelMuchaK − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match42.544.0−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrezelMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 257 vs 166 / 33837.4%49.1%96 / 257 vs 166 / 338Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrezelKrezel 1.53/Mucha 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Krezel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 27 · 21:00A. Krezel338411101G. Mucha4011116123
WSep 27 · 16:35A. Krezel52118138123G. Mucha485111111102
A. Krezel10
WSep 27 · 22:10A. Krezel2.101311113M. Lewczuk1.6711990LSep 27 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.5711511113A. Krezel2.25911751LSep 27 · 18:55A. Szurgot3.4011611133A. Krezel1.306119111WSep 27 · 18:10A. Krezel3.001111113H. Tkaczyk1.363980WSep 27 · 16:35A. Krezel1.61118138123G. Mucha2.205111111102WSep 27 · 15:50A. Kubiak2.206480A. Krezel1.611111113LSep 18 · 04:40A. Krezel2.604780J. Zelezik1.341111113WSep 18 · 03:05K. Kwiatkowski1.6574120A. Krezel2.101111143WSep 18 · 02:20H. Tkaczyk1.51911661A. Krezel2.4111711113WSep 18 · 01:30A. Krezel1.5713111211113A. Staniczek2.17117141392
G. Mucha10
WSep 27 · 22:35A. Szurgot2.638111141G. Mucha1.4411136113WSep 27 · 20:05A. Kubiak2.2091511792G. Mucha1.611113911113LSep 27 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.25411911113G. Mucha3.7511411782LSep 27 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.53117114113G. Mucha2.3841161162LSep 27 · 16:35A. Krezel1.61118138123G. Mucha2.205111111102WSep 27 · 15:00A. Szurgot2.63111187122G. Mucha1.44871111143LSep 27 · 02:20G. Mucha2.70971211142J. Oracz1.401111107163LSep 27 · 00:45M. Machelski2.501112811133G. Mucha1.45714117112LSep 27 · 00:00A. Fomin1.6071713113G. Mucha2.1011151151LSep 26 · 23:10G. Mucha2.8851391192A. Zmijewski1.371111118113
Upcoming Matches
A. Krezel
Sep 27 · 23:45A. Krezel1.40A. Kubiak2.75—Sep 28 · 01:00A. Krezel1.50A. Szurgot2.50—Sep 28 · 02:35A. Krezel2.50H. Tkaczyk1.50—Sep 28 · 15:50A. Krezel—A. Skupinski——Sep 28 · 16:55A. Krezel—K. Kwiatkowski——Sep 28 · 17:45A. Krezel—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 28 · 18:30A. Krezel—M. Lewczuk——Sep 28 · 20:05A. Krezel—Z. Nocun——Sep 28 · 21:45A. Krezel—H. Tkaczyk——Sep 28 · 22:50A. Krezel—K. Kwiatkowski——
G. Mucha
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