TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Machelski vs Grzegorz Mucha 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11712148111171311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
105 points played in total.
Set by set
11712148111171311
H2H Michal Machelski 6–7 Grzegorz Mucha Michal Machelski has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Mucha beat Machelski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Mucha)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMachelski 2.50 / Mucha 1.45
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Mucha)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13204404
Machelski2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 116 of 350
Down 0–1, comes back20% 40 of 203
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 120
Mucha1.45
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 99 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it76% 67 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMachelski5wins
AwayMucha5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMachelski100%5 of 5
AwayMucha100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Machelski5Mucha5n = 10split evenly
S2Machelski4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S3Machelski5Mucha5n = 10split evenly
S4Machelski2Mucha5n = 7Mucha took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMachelskiMuchaMachelski − MuchaBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.2+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMachelskiMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 1100 vs 163 / 33037.2%49.4%409 / 1100 vs 163 / 330Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMachelski 2.50/Mucha 1.45
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Machelski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 18:45M. Machelski2769120G. Mucha361111143
WAug 23 · 21:45M. Machelski331111113G. Mucha228590
LAug 23 · 17:45M. Machelski38991191G. Mucha3711114113
LAug 17 · 02:10M. Machelski368117101G. Mucha4011611123
WAug 16 · 20:05M. Machelski50111279113G. Mucha47610111192
WAug 9 · 22:35M. Machelski3812114113G. Mucha361061191
WAug 9 · 15:00M. Machelski49119117113G. Mucha4221191192
WAug 3 · 01:45M. Machelski4111811113G. Mucha30711841
LAug 2 · 16:15M. Machelski3713111121G. Mucha4815139113
LJul 4 · 22:55M. Machelski2610880G. Mucha341211113
M. Machelski10
WSep 26 · 23:35M. Machelski2.48111199113J. Oracz1.4895111182WSep 26 · 22:25A. Fomin1.427101111112M. Machelski2.60111277133LSep 26 · 21:35M. Machelski3.306750A. Zmijewski1.271111113LSep 26 · 20:00M. Machelski3.50611371A. Fomin1.2611711113LSep 26 · 18:45M. Machelski2.3769120G. Mucha1.521111143LSep 26 · 17:35M. Machelski4.75891151J. Oracz1.1411116113LSep 26 · 16:25C. Pawlik1.201111113M. Machelski3.909350LSep 26 · 15:35M. Machelski2.10115551A. Zmijewski1.6591111113LSep 22 · 02:45M. Machelski1.903890A. Staniczek1.801111113LSep 22 · 01:10M. Machelski3.40117681M. Warzecha1.2891111113
G. Mucha10
LSep 27 · 00:00A. Fomin1.6071713113G. Mucha2.1011151151LSep 26 · 23:10G. Mucha2.8851391192A. Zmijewski1.371111118113WSep 26 · 22:00G. Mucha2.50111011133C. Pawlik1.456123111LSep 26 · 20:20G. Mucha3.009670J. Oracz1.361111113WSep 26 · 18:45M. Machelski2.3769120G. Mucha1.521111143WSep 26 · 18:00C. Pawlik1.5011291382G. Mucha2.505111111113WSep 26 · 17:10G. Mucha2.3716118113A. Zmijewski1.451451181LSep 26 · 16:00G. Mucha2.751413311102A. Fomin1.4012111113123LSep 25 · 05:05H. Tkaczyk1.4011411113G. Mucha2.65511681LSep 25 · 03:55G. Mucha2.15451191M. Lewczuk1.6011113113
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