TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Andrzej Szurgot vs Grzegorz Mucha 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111113116411––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:30 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrzej Szurgot above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 75 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 67.3%
75 points played in total.
H2H Andrzej Szurgot 0–2 Grzegorz Mucha Andrzej Szurgot has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Mucha beat Szurgot 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:30What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Szurgot 1134 vs Mucha 1349
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 215 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szurgot 40% vs Mucha 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szurgot 20% vs Mucha 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szurgot -2 · Mucha +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Mucha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzurgot 2.63 / Mucha 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Mucha)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13200861
Szurgot2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog19% won 19 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Mucha1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 100 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it98% 51 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 68 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSzurgot0wins
AwayMucha2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderMucha leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSzurgotMuchaS − MBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.546.0−4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzurgotMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime26 / 127 vs 166 / 33720.5%49.3%26 / 127 vs 166 / 337Avg sets wonper match1.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match31.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaSzurgot 2.63/Mucha 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 27 · 22:35A. Szurgot348111141G. Mucha4111136113
LSep 27 · 15:00A. Szurgot49111187122G. Mucha51871111143
A. Szurgot10
LSep 27 · 21:45A. Kubiak1.6711116113A. Szurgot2.10791161LSep 27 · 20:30A. Szurgot4.505610H. Tkaczyk1.171111113WSep 27 · 18:55A. Szurgot3.4011611133A. Krezel1.306119111WSep 27 · 17:45A. Szurgot2.631111113A. Kubiak1.445770LSep 27 · 16:15A. Szurgot2.75891161M. Lewczuk1.4011117113LSep 27 · 15:00A. Szurgot2.63111187122G. Mucha1.44871111143LSep 27 · 02:10P. Gesiarz1.801111143A. Szurgot1.9189120LSep 27 · 01:25K. Malcher1.611111113A. Szurgot2.209770LSep 26 · 23:20J. Slawomir1.5711118113A. Szurgot2.25891171LSep 26 · 22:35J. Michalik1.5011711113A. Szurgot2.50611981
G. Mucha10
WSep 27 · 23:20M. Lewczuk1.534711101G. Mucha2.3811119123WSep 27 · 21:00A. Krezel1.538411101G. Mucha2.3811116123WSep 27 · 20:05A. Kubiak2.2091511792G. Mucha1.611113911113LSep 27 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.25411911113G. Mucha3.7511411782LSep 27 · 17:20M. Lewczuk1.53117114113G. Mucha2.3841161162LSep 27 · 16:35A. Krezel1.61118138123G. Mucha2.205111111102WSep 27 · 15:00A. Szurgot2.63111187122G. Mucha1.44871111143LSep 27 · 02:20G. Mucha2.70971211142J. Oracz1.401111107163LSep 27 · 00:45M. Machelski2.501112811133G. Mucha1.45714117112LSep 27 · 00:00A. Fomin1.6071713113G. Mucha2.1011151151
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