TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Mucha vs Dariusz Maszczynski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012117119911911
Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 13
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:44 and never touched: 82.9% is still 82.9%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
82.9%
82.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Dariusz Maszczynski below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 100 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 82.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 11–1 Dariusz Maszczynski Dariusz Maszczynski has won 1 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:4482.9%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
clears by 1.1pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-1 in 12
Mucha
Wrong
gap of 10 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1383 vs Maszczynski 1095
Mucha
Wrong
both rated, 289 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 40% vs Maszczynski 0%
Mucha
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 50% vs Maszczynski 0%
Mucha
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha -1 · Maszczynski -13
Maszczynski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Mucha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maszczynski form (0%) is below what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.222 / Maszczynski 4.00
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Mucha)+1.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13239055
Mucha1.22
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 110 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it98% 55 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 74 of 96
Maszczynski4.00
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 13
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog23% won 68 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back12% 24 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMucha9wins
AwayMaszczynski1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMucha leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha85.7%6 of 7
AwayMaszczynski0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha7Maszczynski3n = 10Mucha took 7 of 10
S2Mucha8Maszczynski2n = 10Mucha took 8 of 10
S3Mucha6Maszczynski4n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S4Mucha4Maszczynski4n = 8split evenly
S5Mucha3Maszczynski0n = 3Mucha took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMuchaMaszczynskiMucha − MaszczynskiBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.036.2+5.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaMaszczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 362 vs 101 / 46849.7%21.6%180 / 362 vs 101 / 468Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.833.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.22/Maszczynski 4.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
82.9%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maszczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 22:55G. Mucha49111278113D. Maszczynski46710111172
WSep 19 · 16:55G. Mucha331111113D. Maszczynski247980
WSep 13 · 02:35G. Mucha351111133D. Maszczynski1641110
WSep 12 · 18:10G. Mucha45121111113D. Maszczynski38148971
WSep 5 · 23:20G. Mucha45311119113D. Maszczynski4511881172
WSep 5 · 17:20G. Mucha3611112123D. Maszczynski355911101
WAug 16 · 01:25G. Mucha45111111123D. Maszczynski371386101
WAug 15 · 19:20G. Mucha51119119113D. Maszczynski4061141182
LAug 9 · 01:25G. Mucha371110881D. Maszczynski4281211113
WAug 8 · 19:20G. Mucha4411119133D. Maszczynski399811111
G. Mucha10
LOct 3 · 16:15G. Mucha1.57111113982P. Gesiarz2.25391511113WOct 3 · 15:00G. Mucha1.67411117113M. Karpiuk2.1011971162WOct 1 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.53211671G. Mucha2.3811911113LOct 1 · 01:00H. Tkaczyk1.331111113G. Mucha3.259970LOct 1 · 00:10G. Mucha1.837490J. Skorupa1.831111113LSep 30 · 22:35G. Mucha2.3811113892Z. Nocun1.53861111113LSep 30 · 21:45M. Machelski2.20715912173G. Mucha1.6111131110152WSep 30 · 20:30G. Mucha1.80111169113J. Skorupa1.9167111182WSep 30 · 18:55G. Mucha1.57111111113A. Skupinski2.25139671WSep 30 · 17:45G. Mucha1.6112118113M. Machelski2.201071161
D. Maszczynski10
LOct 3 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.401112113D. Maszczynski2.7581090LOct 3 · 16:55D. Maszczynski5.00111141162A. Fomin1.14139119113LOct 3 · 15:50D. Maszczynski3.50111011692D. Pyrek1.28612611113LSep 28 · 20:00J. Cyndera1.5291111113D. Maszczynski2.40118971LSep 28 · 19:10A. Kubiak1.4081111113D. Maszczynski2.70115571LSep 28 · 18:25D. Maszczynski2.957970A. Staniczek1.361111113LSep 28 · 16:50D. Maszczynski5.75981191J. Zelezik1.1211114113LSep 28 · 16:00P. Gesiarz1.27111278113D. Maszczynski3.35610111132LSep 21 · 20:00J. Cyndera1.3711137133D. Maszczynski2.8051111111LSep 21 · 19:10M. Warzecha1.181111113D. Maszczynski4.258740
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Oct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha1.44D. Pyrek2.63—Oct 3 · 20:30G. Mucha2.63A. Fomin1.44—Oct 3 · 21:45G. Mucha1.22D. Maszczynski4.00—Oct 3 · 22:35G. Mucha1.80M. Karpiuk1.91—Oct 4 · 00:10G. Mucha2.63A. Fomin1.44—Oct 4 · 01:00G. Mucha—D. Pyrek——Oct 4 · 01:45G. Mucha1.61P. Gesiarz2.20—Oct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha—H. Tkaczyk——Oct 4 · 16:55G. Mucha—A. Staniczek——Oct 4 · 17:45G. Mucha—K. Kwiatkowski——
D. Maszczynski
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