TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Mucha vs Dawid Pyrek 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115113116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:48 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Dawid Pyrek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 47 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 67.3%
47 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 3–0 Dawid Pyrek Dawid Pyrek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4867.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Mucha
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1377 vs Pyrek 1278
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 40% vs Pyrek 60%
Pyrek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 40% vs Pyrek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha -2 · Pyrek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Mucha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pyrek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.444 / Pyrek 2.625
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Mucha)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13238251
Mucha1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 110 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it98% 55 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 74 of 96
Pyrek2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 56 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMucha3wins
AwayPyrek0wins
Mucha leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha2Pyrek1n = 3Mucha took 2 of 3
S2Mucha3Pyrek0n = 3Mucha took 3 of 3
S3Mucha2Pyrek1n = 3Mucha took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMuchaPyrekM − PBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.024.3+14.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaPyrekBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 364 vs 371 / 76049.7%48.8%181 / 364 vs 371 / 760Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.44/Pyrek 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha331111113D. Pyrek145360
WAug 1 · 22:25G. Mucha4271113113D. Pyrek301171111
WAug 1 · 20:00G. Mucha4211119113D. Pyrek29751161
G. Mucha10
LOct 3 · 17:45G. Mucha1.22101111992D. Maszczynski4.00127911113LOct 3 · 16:15G. Mucha1.57111113982P. Gesiarz2.25391511113WOct 3 · 15:00G. Mucha1.67411117113M. Karpiuk2.1011971162WOct 1 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.53211671G. Mucha2.3811911113LOct 1 · 01:00H. Tkaczyk1.331111113G. Mucha3.259970LOct 1 · 00:10G. Mucha1.837490J. Skorupa1.831111113LSep 30 · 22:35G. Mucha2.3811113892Z. Nocun1.53861111113LSep 30 · 21:45M. Machelski2.20715912173G. Mucha1.6111131110152WSep 30 · 20:30G. Mucha1.80111169113J. Skorupa1.9167111182WSep 30 · 18:55G. Mucha1.57111111113A. Skupinski2.25139671
D. Pyrek10
LOct 3 · 18:10D. Pyrek2.2551111892A. Fomin1.57117911113WOct 3 · 16:35D. Pyrek2.50133119113M. Karpiuk1.50111181182WOct 3 · 15:50D. Maszczynski3.50111011692D. Pyrek1.28612611113LSep 20 · 02:20D. Pyrek1.868118131J. Skorupa1.8011911153WSep 20 · 00:45A. Kubiak1.8561060D. Pyrek1.851112113LSep 20 · 00:00A. Fomin1.5713811113D. Pyrek2.251111841LSep 19 · 23:10D. Pyrek2.956370H. Tkaczyk1.361111113LSep 19 · 22:00D. Pyrek3.605560M. Guzik1.181111113LSep 19 · 20:20D. Pyrek1.86861131J. Skorupa1.8011119113WSep 19 · 18:45A. Kubiak1.956111181D. Pyrek1.7511413113
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
Oct 3 · 20:30G. Mucha2.63A. Fomin1.44—Oct 3 · 21:45G. Mucha1.25D. Maszczynski3.75—Oct 3 · 22:35G. Mucha1.80M. Karpiuk1.91—Oct 4 · 00:10G. Mucha2.63A. Fomin1.44—Oct 4 · 01:00G. Mucha—D. Pyrek——Oct 4 · 01:45G. Mucha1.61P. Gesiarz2.20—Oct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha—H. Tkaczyk——Oct 4 · 16:55G. Mucha—A. Staniczek——Oct 4 · 17:45G. Mucha—K. Kwiatkowski——Oct 4 · 18:30G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——
D. Pyrek
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