TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Grzegorz Mucha 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611111711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:39 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Kwiatkowski above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 47 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 54.9%
47 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 7–11 Grzegorz Mucha Kacper Kwiatkowski has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:3954.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Mucha
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1351 vs Mucha 1396
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Mucha 60%
Mucha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Mucha 60%
Mucha
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -1 · Mucha -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Mucha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 2.00 / Mucha 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Mucha)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239153
Kwiatkowski2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 79 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 70
Mucha1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 115 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it97% 59 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski4wins
AwayMucha6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMucha leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski50%2 of 4
AwayMucha66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski4Mucha6n = 10Mucha took 6 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski7Mucha3n = 10Kwiatkowski took 7 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski2Mucha8n = 10Mucha took 8 of 10
S4Kwiatkowski4Mucha4n = 8split evenly
S5Kwiatkowski1Mucha2n = 3Mucha took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiMuchaK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.840.0−3.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 332 vs 186 / 37244%50%146 / 332 vs 186 / 372Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaKwiatkowski 2.00/Mucha 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski531113612113G. Mucha51711111482
LSep 29 · 19:30K. Kwiatkowski48111171272G. Mucha52971114113
LAug 24 · 01:45K. Kwiatkowski27116461G. Mucha4071111113
WAug 23 · 16:15K. Kwiatkowski43101111113G. Mucha32128391
WAug 17 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski3851111113G. Mucha31119561
LAug 17 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski2510960G. Mucha341211113
WAug 16 · 21:00K. Kwiatkowski3711114113G. Mucha35961191
LAug 16 · 16:35K. Kwiatkowski259880G. Mucha331111113
LJul 13 · 22:55K. Kwiatkowski36812881G. Mucha43111011113
LJul 13 · 16:55K. Kwiatkowski3641161142G. Mucha49117119113
K. Kwiatkowski10
LOct 4 · 16:15K. Kwiatkowski2.2012151071Z. Nocun1.61101712113WOct 4 · 15:00K. Kwiatkowski1.671111123A. Szurgot2.1047100LSep 30 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.8597100J. Skorupa1.851111123LSep 30 · 03:05A. Fomin1.7011611133K. Kwiatkowski1.957117111WSep 30 · 02:20J. Michalik1.95101370K. Kwiatkowski1.751215113WSep 30 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.621113612113G. Mucha2.15711111482LSep 30 · 00:20K. Kwiatkowski1.70111153112M. Brunner2.00871111133LSep 29 · 22:40K. Kwiatkowski1.755611101J. Skorupa1.9511119123WSep 29 · 21:05A. Fomin1.6012980K. Kwiatkowski2.101411113LSep 29 · 20:20M. Brunner1.751311123K. Kwiatkowski1.97114100
G. Mucha10
LOct 4 · 16:55G. Mucha1.50991371A. Staniczek2.50111111113LOct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha3.409280H. Tkaczyk1.301111113WOct 4 · 01:45P. Gesiarz2.25651181G. Mucha1.5711111113WOct 4 · 01:00D. Pyrek2.506770G. Mucha1.461111113WOct 4 · 00:10G. Mucha2.2091211133A. Fomin1.6111109111WOct 3 · 22:35G. Mucha1.80111179113M. Karpiuk1.9197111152LOct 3 · 21:45D. Maszczynski4.0013138113G. Mucha1.2211111191WOct 3 · 20:30G. Mucha2.631111113A. Fomin1.448380WOct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha1.441111113D. Pyrek2.635360LSep 30 · 01:30K. Kwiatkowski1.621113612113G. Mucha2.15711111482
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
Oct 4 · 18:55K. Kwiatkowski2.75H. Tkaczyk1.40—Oct 4 · 20:30K. Kwiatkowski1.73A. Staniczek2.00—Oct 4 · 21:45K. Kwiatkowski2.10G. Mucha1.67—Oct 4 · 22:35K. Kwiatkowski1.67A. Szurgot2.10—Oct 5 · 00:10K. Kwiatkowski1.73A. Staniczek2.00—Oct 5 · 01:00K. Kwiatkowski1.83J. Michalik1.83—Oct 5 · 01:45K. Kwiatkowski2.10Z. Nocun1.67—
G. Mucha
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