TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Mucha vs Adam Staniczek 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9119111311711––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:39 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Mucha above · Adam Staniczek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 82 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 65.7%
82 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Mucha 11–7 Adam Staniczek Adam Staniczek has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:3965.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Mucha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Mucha
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mucha 1413 vs Staniczek 1261
Mucha
Wrong
both rated, 152 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mucha 80% vs Staniczek 20%
Mucha
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mucha 60% vs Staniczek 20%
Mucha
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mucha -1 · Staniczek -3
Staniczek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Mucha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staniczek form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMucha 1.50 / Staniczek 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Mucha)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239155
Mucha1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 115 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it97% 59 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it77% 78 of 101
Staniczek2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 124 of 489
Down 0–1, comes back11% 34 of 309
Down 0–2, comes back2% 5 of 231
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMucha4wins
AwayStaniczek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStaniczek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMucha60%3 of 5
AwayStaniczek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mucha5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S2Mucha3Staniczek7n = 10Staniczek took 7 of 10
S3Mucha5Staniczek5n = 10split evenly
S4Mucha4Staniczek3n = 7Mucha took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMuchaStaniczekM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.536.7−2.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMuchaStaniczekBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 371 vs 368 / 101350.1%36.3%186 / 371 vs 368 / 1013Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.833.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaMucha 1.50/Staniczek 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Staniczek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 01:30G. Mucha4791314113A. Staniczek3711111231
LSep 24 · 19:30G. Mucha228770A. Staniczek331111113
WSep 6 · 01:25G. Mucha4214116113A. Staniczek361271161
WSep 5 · 19:20G. Mucha3711411113A. Staniczek26311481
LAug 13 · 02:35G. Mucha381178121A. Staniczek4371111143
WAug 12 · 18:10G. Mucha331111113A. Staniczek237880
LAug 9 · 21:00G. Mucha51118141352A. Staniczek589111611113
LAug 9 · 16:35G. Mucha25831131A. Staniczek4011117113
LJul 12 · 23:45G. Mucha208480A. Staniczek331111113
LJul 12 · 15:50G. Mucha30671161A. Staniczek3811115113
G. Mucha10
WOct 4 · 17:45K. Kwiatkowski2.006170G. Mucha1.731111113LOct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha3.409280H. Tkaczyk1.301111113WOct 4 · 01:45P. Gesiarz2.25651181G. Mucha1.5711111113WOct 4 · 01:00D. Pyrek2.506770G. Mucha1.461111113WOct 4 · 00:10G. Mucha2.2091211133A. Fomin1.6111109111WOct 3 · 22:35G. Mucha1.80111179113M. Karpiuk1.9197111152LOct 3 · 21:45D. Maszczynski4.0013138113G. Mucha1.2211111191WOct 3 · 20:30G. Mucha2.631111113A. Fomin1.448380WOct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha1.441111113D. Pyrek2.635360LOct 3 · 17:45G. Mucha1.22101111992D. Maszczynski4.00127911113
A. Staniczek10
LOct 4 · 15:25Z. Nocun1.33841111113A. Staniczek3.2511118742LOct 2 · 05:05J. Michalik1.581111113A. Staniczek2.256980LOct 2 · 03:55A. Staniczek2.3581060M. Wolny1.501112113WOct 2 · 02:45M. Zielinski—941481A. Staniczek—111112113LOct 2 · 01:30A. Zmijewski1.6651111113A. Staniczek2.10119531LOct 1 · 23:55M. Lewczuk1.3011113113A. Staniczek3.05761181LOct 1 · 23:05M. Zielinski—111111113A. Staniczek—751391LOct 1 · 21:55A. Staniczek2.807430M. Wolny1.361111113LOct 1 · 20:45D. Molenda1.10117211113A. Staniczek5.3081111232WOct 1 · 19:30A. Zmijewski1.47711971A. Staniczek2.5111411113
Upcoming Matches
G. Mucha
A. Staniczek
Oct 4 · 18:10A. Staniczek4.50H. Tkaczyk1.17—Oct 4 · 19:20A. Staniczek1.73A. Szurgot2.00—Oct 4 · 20:30A. Staniczek2.00K. Kwiatkowski1.73—Oct 4 · 21:20A. Staniczek3.25Z. Nocun1.33—Oct 4 · 22:55A. Staniczek2.50G. Mucha1.50—Oct 5 · 00:10A. Staniczek2.00K. Kwiatkowski1.73—Oct 5 · 01:25A. Staniczek—A. Szurgot——Oct 5 · 02:35A. Staniczek2.50J. Michalik1.50—Oct 5 · 15:35A. Staniczek—J. Cyndera——Oct 5 · 17:10A. Staniczek—P. Gesiarz——
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