TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Pyrek vs Grzegorz Mucha 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:53 and never touched: 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Mucha to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Pyrek above · Grzegorz Mucha below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Grzegorz Mucha at 63.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Pyrek 0–3 Grzegorz Mucha Dawid Pyrek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Mucha beat Pyrek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:5363.9%Our read68.5%to break even at 1.46
short by 4.6pp68.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.46 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Mucha
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Mucha
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrek 1285 vs Mucha 1404
Mucha
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrek 40% vs Mucha 80%
Mucha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrek 50% vs Mucha 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrek -1 · Mucha +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Mucha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mucha form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrek 2.50 / Mucha 1.46
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Mucha)-4.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239162
Pyrek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 56 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 79
Mucha1.46
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 110 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it98% 55 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it77% 74 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePyrek0wins
AwayMucha3wins
Mucha leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrek1Mucha2n = 3Mucha took 2 of 3
S2Pyrek0Mucha3n = 3Mucha took 3 of 3
S3Pyrek1Mucha2n = 3Mucha took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricPyrekMuchaP − MBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match24.339.0−14.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrekMuchaBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 764 vs 184 / 36848.8%50%373 / 764 vs 184 / 368Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MuchaPyrek 2.50/Mucha 1.46
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Mucha · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mucha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 3 · 18:55D. Pyrek145360G. Mucha331111113
LAug 1 · 22:25D. Pyrek301171111G. Mucha4271113113
LAug 1 · 20:00D. Pyrek29751161G. Mucha4211119113
D. Pyrek10
LOct 3 · 23:45D. Pyrek1.28911111132D. Maszczynski3.50111393113WOct 3 · 22:10D. Pyrek1.8381111113P. Gesiarz1.83119791LOct 3 · 21:00D. Pyrek2.5010830M. Karpiuk1.501211113WOct 3 · 19:40P. Gesiarz1.839111161D. Pyrek1.8311134113LOct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha1.441111113D. Pyrek2.635360LOct 3 · 18:10D. Pyrek2.2551111892A. Fomin1.57117911113WOct 3 · 16:35D. Pyrek2.50133119113M. Karpiuk1.50111181182WOct 3 · 15:50D. Maszczynski3.50111011692D. Pyrek1.28612611113LSep 20 · 02:20D. Pyrek1.868118131J. Skorupa1.8011911153WSep 20 · 00:45A. Kubiak1.8561060D. Pyrek1.851112113
G. Mucha10
WOct 4 · 01:45P. Gesiarz2.25651181G. Mucha1.5711111113WOct 4 · 00:10G. Mucha2.2091211133A. Fomin1.6111109111WOct 3 · 22:35G. Mucha1.80111179113M. Karpiuk1.9197111152LOct 3 · 21:45D. Maszczynski4.0013138113G. Mucha1.2211111191WOct 3 · 20:30G. Mucha2.631111113A. Fomin1.448380WOct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha1.441111113D. Pyrek2.635360LOct 3 · 17:45G. Mucha1.22101111992D. Maszczynski4.00127911113LOct 3 · 16:15G. Mucha1.57111113982P. Gesiarz2.25391511113WOct 3 · 15:00G. Mucha1.67411117113M. Karpiuk2.1011971162WOct 1 · 01:45M. Lewczuk1.53211671G. Mucha2.3811911113
Upcoming Matches
D. Pyrek
G. Mucha
Oct 4 · 15:50G. Mucha—H. Tkaczyk——Oct 4 · 16:55G. Mucha—A. Staniczek——Oct 4 · 17:45G. Mucha—K. Kwiatkowski——Oct 4 · 18:30G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——Oct 4 · 20:05G. Mucha—A. Szurgot——Oct 4 · 21:45G. Mucha—K. Kwiatkowski——Oct 4 · 22:55G. Mucha—A. Staniczek——Oct 4 · 23:45G. Mucha—J. Michalik——Oct 5 · 00:35G. Mucha—Z. Nocun——Oct 5 · 02:10G. Mucha—A. Szurgot——
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