TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Pyrek vs Mateusz Karpiuk 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811311––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Pyrek above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 55 set 3, 3-11 · our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 65.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Pyrek 1–2 Mateusz Karpiuk Dawid Pyrek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Pyrek beat Karpiuk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5265.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrek 1294 vs Karpiuk 1476
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrek 60% vs Karpiuk 40%
Pyrek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrek 40% vs Karpiuk 70%
Karpiuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrek +1 · Karpiuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Karpiuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpiuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrek 2.50 / Karpiuk 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Karpiuk)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239169
Pyrek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog30% won 56 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 79
Karpiuk1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 65 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it71% 44 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePyrek1wins
AwayKarpiuk2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrek1Karpiuk2n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3
S2Pyrek2Karpiuk1n = 3Pyrek took 2 of 3
S3Pyrek1Karpiuk2n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3
S4Pyrek1Karpiuk2n = 3Karpiuk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPyrekKarpiukP − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.044.7−5.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrekKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 761 vs 156 / 33748.9%46.3%372 / 761 vs 156 / 337Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukPyrek 2.50/Karpiuk 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 3 · 16:35D. Pyrek47133119113M. Karpiuk49111181182
LJul 7 · 01:50D. Pyrek3541181112M. Karpiuk44113118113
LJul 6 · 20:05D. Pyrek355111181M. Karpiuk4111613113
D. Pyrek10
WOct 3 · 19:40P. Gesiarz1.839111161D. Pyrek1.8311134113LOct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha1.441111113D. Pyrek2.635360LOct 3 · 18:10D. Pyrek2.2551111892A. Fomin1.57117911113WOct 3 · 16:35D. Pyrek2.50133119113M. Karpiuk1.50111181182WOct 3 · 15:50D. Maszczynski3.50111011692D. Pyrek1.28612611113LSep 20 · 02:20D. Pyrek1.868118131J. Skorupa1.8011911153WSep 20 · 00:45A. Kubiak1.8561060D. Pyrek1.851112113LSep 20 · 00:00A. Fomin1.5713811113D. Pyrek2.251111841LSep 19 · 23:10D. Pyrek2.956370H. Tkaczyk1.361111113LSep 19 · 22:00D. Pyrek3.605560M. Guzik1.181111113
M. Karpiuk10
WOct 3 · 20:05D. Maszczynski3.50111131192M. Karpiuk1.28137116113LOct 3 · 19:20A. Fomin1.83117119113M. Karpiuk1.8361161192WOct 3 · 17:20P. Gesiarz2.00111091192M. Karpiuk1.73912114113LOct 3 · 16:35D. Pyrek2.50133119113M. Karpiuk1.50111181182LOct 3 · 15:00G. Mucha1.67411117113M. Karpiuk2.1011971162WSep 25 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski1.83116611102M. Karpiuk1.83711116123WSep 25 · 01:25M. Karpiuk1.67111167113J. Michalik2.1055111162WSep 25 · 00:10M. Guzik1.25981261M. Karpiuk3.75111110113WSep 24 · 22:55J. Skorupa2.001111991M. Karpiuk1.7361311113WSep 24 · 21:20A. Fomin1.6181070M. Karpiuk2.201112113
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