TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gesiarz vs Mateusz Karpiuk 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191012911114911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Karpiuk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gesiarz above · Mateusz Karpiuk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Mateusz Karpiuk at 54.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gesiarz 3–5 Mateusz Karpiuk Piotr Gesiarz has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0454.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Karpiuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Karpiuk
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gesiarz 1378 vs Karpiuk 1477
Karpiuk
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gesiarz 80% vs Karpiuk 60%
Gesiarz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gesiarz 60% vs Karpiuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gesiarz +1 · Karpiuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Karpiuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gesiarz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGesiarz 2.00 / Karpiuk 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Karpiuk)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13238356
Gesiarz2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 55 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Karpiuk1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 65 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it71% 44 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGesiarz3wins
AwayKarpiuk5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderKarpiuk leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGesiarz60%3 of 5
AwayKarpiuk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gesiarz5Karpiuk3n = 8Gesiarz took 5 of 8
S2Gesiarz2Karpiuk6n = 8Karpiuk took 6 of 8
S3Gesiarz3Karpiuk5n = 8Karpiuk took 5 of 8
S4Gesiarz0Karpiuk4n = 4Karpiuk took 4 of 4
S5Gesiarz2Karpiuk1n = 3Gesiarz took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away338%
These 8 meetings
MetricGesiarzKarpiukG − KBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match35.438.6−3.2per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGesiarzKarpiukBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 353 vs 154 / 33447.3%46.1%167 / 353 vs 154 / 334Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KarpiukGesiarz 2.00/Karpiuk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Karpiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 22 · 20:45P. Gesiarz401388111M. Karpiuk46111111133
LSep 15 · 20:45P. Gesiarz4711713882M. Karpiuk495111111113
WAug 20 · 19:10P. Gesiarz491111124113M. Karpiuk44513101152
LAug 13 · 20:45P. Gesiarz208660M. Karpiuk331111113
LAug 8 · 21:45P. Gesiarz2284100M. Karpiuk341111123
WAug 8 · 17:45P. Gesiarz331111113M. Karpiuk258980
LJul 11 · 23:20P. Gesiarz2261060M. Karpiuk341112113
WJul 11 · 17:20P. Gesiarz501111107113M. Karpiuk4498121142
P. Gesiarz10
WOct 3 · 18:30P. Gesiarz1.401112113D. Maszczynski2.7581090WOct 3 · 16:15G. Mucha1.57111113982P. Gesiarz2.25391511113LOct 3 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.63411681A. Fomin1.4411511113WSep 29 · 22:20A. Fomin1.4638100P. Gesiarz2.551111123WSep 29 · 21:30M. Brunner2.0052120P. Gesiarz1.701111143WSep 29 · 20:45P. Gesiarz1.64119412113G. Mucha2.13711111072WSep 29 · 19:10P. Gesiarz2.2961111113J. Skorupa1.56117681WSep 29 · 18:20K. Kwiatkowski1.707101191P. Gesiarz2.0011128113LSep 28 · 20:20P. Gesiarz2.25119111992J. Zelezik1.581311417113LSep 28 · 18:45J. Cyndera1.781111113P. Gesiarz1.934960
M. Karpiuk10
LOct 3 · 16:35D. Pyrek2.50133119113M. Karpiuk1.50111181182LOct 3 · 15:00G. Mucha1.67411117113M. Karpiuk2.1011971162WSep 25 · 02:35K. Kwiatkowski1.83116611102M. Karpiuk1.83711116123WSep 25 · 01:25M. Karpiuk1.67111167113J. Michalik2.1055111162WSep 25 · 00:10M. Guzik1.25981261M. Karpiuk3.75111110113WSep 24 · 22:55J. Skorupa2.001111991M. Karpiuk1.7361311113WSep 24 · 21:20A. Fomin1.6181070M. Karpiuk2.201112113LSep 24 · 20:30M. Guzik1.2511811113M. Karpiuk3.75811771LSep 24 · 19:20M. Karpiuk3.251091491J. Michalik1.33121112113LSep 24 · 18:10K. Kwiatkowski1.9111118113M. Karpiuk1.80891181
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