TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Kwiatkowski vs Marian Brunner 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181175113111113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:19 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarian Brunner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
1181175113111113
H2H Kacper Kwiatkowski 7–4 Marian Brunner Marian Brunner has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Brunner beat Kwiatkowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:19What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwiatkowski 1362 vs Brunner 1267
Kwiatkowski
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwiatkowski 20% vs Brunner 40%
Brunner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwiatkowski 40% vs Brunner 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwiatkowski -1 · Brunner -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Brunner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwiatkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwiatkowski 1.70 / Brunner 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Brunner)+8.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13219796
Kwiatkowski1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 54 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it78% 42 of 54
Brunner2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 51 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwiatkowski6wins
AwayBrunner4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKwiatkowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwiatkowski100%6 of 6
AwayBrunner100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwiatkowski6Brunner4n = 10Kwiatkowski took 6 of 10
S2Kwiatkowski4Brunner6n = 10Brunner took 6 of 10
S3Kwiatkowski5Brunner5n = 10split evenly
S4Kwiatkowski1Brunner2n = 3Brunner took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwiatkowskiBrunnerK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.733.6−0.9per matchSweeps34−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwiatkowskiBrunnerBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 325 vs 281 / 57844%48.6%143 / 325 vs 281 / 578Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BrunnerKwiatkowski 1.70/Brunner 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Brunner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Brunner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 20:20K. Kwiatkowski25114100M. Brunner361311123
LSep 23 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski209380M. Brunner331111113
WSep 22 · 18:45K. Kwiatkowski451112101113M. Brunner49710121192
WAug 26 · 01:10K. Kwiatkowski341211113M. Brunner2410590
WAug 25 · 17:30K. Kwiatkowski3811511113M. Brunner33911671
WAug 12 · 00:20K. Kwiatkowski331111113M. Brunner269890
LAug 11 · 20:20K. Kwiatkowski175840M. Brunner331111113
WJul 30 · 22:35K. Kwiatkowski52119119123M. Brunner39311411102
WJul 30 · 15:00K. Kwiatkowski331111113M. Brunner258980
LJul 15 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski3097140M. Brunner381111163
K. Kwiatkowski10
LSep 29 · 22:40K. Kwiatkowski1.755611101J. Skorupa1.9511119123WSep 29 · 21:05A. Fomin1.6012980K. Kwiatkowski2.101411113LSep 29 · 20:20M. Brunner1.751311123K. Kwiatkowski1.97114100LSep 29 · 19:30K. Kwiatkowski1.95111171272G. Mucha1.75971114113LSep 29 · 18:20K. Kwiatkowski1.707101191P. Gesiarz2.0011128113WSep 29 · 01:50A. Barton4.003850K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113LSep 29 · 00:50K. Kwiatkowski2.2011117382Z. Nocun1.61881111113LSep 28 · 23:50H. Tkaczyk1.40691111113K. Kwiatkowski2.7511116882WSep 28 · 22:50A. Krezel1.91128119132K. Kwiatkowski1.801011711153WSep 28 · 21:20M. Lewczuk1.8381171192K. Kwiatkowski1.83119112113
M. Brunner10
LSep 30 · 01:10M. Brunner2.6071161172J. Skorupa1.44116119113LSep 29 · 23:05M. Brunner4.058440G. Mucha1.181111113LSep 29 · 21:30M. Brunner2.0052120P. Gesiarz1.701111143WSep 29 · 20:20M. Brunner1.751311123K. Kwiatkowski1.97114100LSep 29 · 18:45M. Brunner2.80144110A. Fomin1.351611133WSep 29 · 17:30M. Brunner1.8061311113J. Skorupa1.911111581WSep 23 · 04:20K. Kwiatkowski1.529380M. Brunner2.371111113LSep 23 · 03:30J. Michalik1.7514119113M. Brunner1.951231171LSep 23 · 02:45M. Brunner2.05611791M. Karpiuk1.5611611113WSep 23 · 01:10M. Brunner2.061110911113M. Baran1.5551211692
Upcoming Matches
K. Kwiatkowski
M. Brunner
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