TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Leczycki vs Zbigniew Nocun 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Mariusz Leczycki
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
4–1Last 5Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
4111198111181210
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Leczycki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Leczycki above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 95 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Mariusz Leczycki at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Leczycki 1–0 Zbigniew Nocun Zbigniew Nocun has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Leczycki beat Nocun 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:5854.0%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 9.7pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Leczycki
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Leczycki 1611 vs Nocun 1465
Leczycki
Correct
both rated, 146 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leczycki 80% vs Nocun 60%
Leczycki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leczycki 80% vs Nocun 60%
Leczycki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leczycki +4 · Nocun -1
Leczycki
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Leczycki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeczycki 1.571 / Nocun 2.25
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Leczycki)-9.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13225186
Leczycki1.57
80%won 4 of 5 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 4 of 5
Nocun2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 68 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLeczycki1wins
AwayNocun0wins
Leczycki leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLeczyckiNocunL − NBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match39.036.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeczyckiNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 5 vs 716 / 119480%60%4 / 5 vs 716 / 1194Avg sets wonper match2.62.2per matchAvg pointsper match43.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LeczyckiLeczycki 1.57/Nocun 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Leczycki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Leczycki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 1 · 16:35M. Leczycki3912115113Z. Nocun361071181
M. Leczycki6
LOct 1 · 22:10M. Leczycki1.20101180A. Skupinski4.331213113WOct 1 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.7561040M. Leczycki1.401112113WOct 1 · 18:55A. Fomin1.67311156102M. Leczycki2.101191311123WOct 1 · 18:10M. Leczycki1.25119114113A. Barton3.7581171152WOct 1 · 16:35M. Leczycki2.0012115113Z. Nocun1.731071181LOct 1 · 15:50A. Krezel—111410113M. Leczycki—8121291
Z. Nocun10
LOct 1 · 20:05A. Krezel1.67111213113Z. Nocun2.109101561WOct 1 · 19:20A. Barton7.50611781Z. Nocun1.0711311113WOct 1 · 17:20A. Skupinski2.3857100Z. Nocun1.531111123LOct 1 · 16:35M. Leczycki2.0012115113Z. Nocun1.731071181WOct 1 · 15:00A. Fomin2.00451131Z. Nocun1.7311117113WOct 1 · 02:10M. Machelski2.10111111492Z. Nocun1.67136511113WOct 1 · 01:25J. Skorupa2.25610100Z. Nocun1.571112123LSep 30 · 23:20M. Lewczuk2.63111177113Z. Nocun1.4465111182WSep 30 · 22:35G. Mucha2.3811113892Z. Nocun1.53861111113LSep 30 · 21:00H. Tkaczyk1.73121195113Z. Nocun2.00104111162
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