TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Leczycki vs Arkadiusz Skupinski 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Mariusz Leczycki
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
5–1Last 6Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121113811––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched: 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeMariusz Leczycki to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMariusz Leczycki above · Arkadiusz Skupinski below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 65 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Mariusz Leczycki at 64.3%
65 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Leczycki 1–0 Arkadiusz Skupinski Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Leczycki beat Skupinski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:0664.3%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 19.0pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Leczycki
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Leczycki 1652 vs Skupinski 1234
Leczycki
Wrong
both rated, 419 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leczycki 100% vs Skupinski 40%
Leczycki
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leczycki 83% vs Skupinski 30%
Leczycki
Wrong
53pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leczycki +5 · Skupinski +1
Leczycki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Leczycki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skupinski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeczycki 1.20 / Skupinski 4.333
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Leczycki)-19.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13225185
Leczycki1.20
83%won 5 of 6 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 4 of 6
Skupinski4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 38 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLeczycki1wins
AwaySkupinski0wins
Leczycki leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLeczyckiSkupinskiL − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.020.0+14.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeczyckiSkupinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 6 vs 157 / 41083.3%38.3%5 / 6 vs 157 / 410Avg sets wonper match2.71.7per matchAvg pointsper match43.736.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LeczyckiLeczycki 1.20/Skupinski 4.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.3%
Leczycki · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skupinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 1 · 19:40M. Leczycki341112113A. Skupinski2061040
M. Leczycki6
WOct 1 · 21:00M. Leczycki1.57411811123Z. Nocun2.25119118102WOct 1 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.7561040M. Leczycki1.401112113WOct 1 · 18:55A. Fomin1.67311156102M. Leczycki2.101191311123WOct 1 · 18:10M. Leczycki1.25119114113A. Barton3.7581171152WOct 1 · 16:35M. Leczycki2.0012115113Z. Nocun1.731071181LOct 1 · 15:50A. Krezel—111410113M. Leczycki—8121291
A. Skupinski10
WOct 1 · 21:20A. Skupinski1.501111113A. Barton2.505770LOct 1 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.7561040M. Leczycki1.401112113WOct 1 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.401111149113A. Krezel1.30513121192LOct 1 · 17:20A. Skupinski2.3857100Z. Nocun1.531111123LOct 1 · 16:15A. Fomin1.36861111113A. Skupinski3.0011119872WOct 1 · 15:25A. Skupinski1.501111113A. Barton2.502790LSep 30 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.5011118113A. Skupinski2.50871161LSep 30 · 18:55G. Mucha1.57111111113A. Skupinski2.25139671LSep 30 · 18:10A. Skupinski2.201012991J. Skorupa1.61121011113LSep 30 · 16:35A. Skupinski2.631151110112Z. Nocun1.44711812133
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