TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Arkadiusz Skupinski vs Andrzej Krezel 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11511131412911119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched: 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeAndrzej Krezel to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArkadiusz Skupinski above · Andrzej Krezel below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 106 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Andrzej Krezel at 75.1%
106 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Skupinski 0–3 Andrzej Krezel Arkadiusz Skupinski has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1075.1%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 1.8pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Krezel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Krezel
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skupinski 1211 vs Krezel 1461
Krezel
Wrong
both rated, 250 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skupinski 20% vs Krezel 60%
Krezel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skupinski 20% vs Krezel 60%
Krezel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skupinski -2 · Krezel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Krezel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krezel form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkupinski 3.40 / Krezel 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Krezel)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13223049
Skupinski3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 38 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back15% 12 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 51
Krezel1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 36 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it82% 32 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSkupinski0wins
AwayKrezel3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKrezel leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkupinskin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKrezel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skupinski0Krezel3n = 3Krezel took 3 of 3
S2Skupinski1Krezel2n = 3Krezel took 2 of 3
S3Skupinski2Krezel1n = 3Skupinski took 2 of 3
S4Skupinski1Krezel2n = 3Krezel took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSkupinskiKrezelS − KBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match41.746.0−4.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkupinskiKrezelBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 410 vs 106 / 27338.3%38.8%157 / 410 vs 106 / 273Avg sets wonper match1.71.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.035.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrezelSkupinski 3.40/Krezel 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Krezel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skupinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 28 · 15:50A. Skupinski4697111182A. Krezel50111189113
LSep 2 · 16:35A. Skupinski378101181A. Krezel4211128113
LAug 26 · 18:10A. Skupinski4210139101A. Krezel46121111123
A. Skupinski10
LOct 1 · 17:20A. Skupinski2.3857100Z. Nocun1.531111123LOct 1 · 16:15A. Fomin1.36861111113A. Skupinski3.0011119872WOct 1 · 15:25A. Skupinski1.501111113A. Barton2.502790LSep 30 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.5011118113A. Skupinski2.50871161LSep 30 · 18:55G. Mucha1.57111111113A. Skupinski2.25139671LSep 30 · 18:10A. Skupinski2.201012991J. Skorupa1.61121011113LSep 30 · 16:35A. Skupinski2.631151110112Z. Nocun1.44711812133WSep 30 · 15:50M. Machelski1.617111031A. Skupinski2.2011812113LSep 28 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.50145611113A. Skupinski2.50121111182LSep 28 · 18:55H. Tkaczyk1.2511611113A. Skupinski3.75711861
A. Krezel10
LOct 1 · 17:45A. Fomin1.91117911143A. Krezel1.80811117122WOct 1 · 16:55A. Krezel1.101111113A. Barton6.507290WOct 1 · 15:50A. Krezel—111410113M. Leczycki—8121291LSep 29 · 01:30A. Krezel2.1088130Z. Nocun1.671111153WSep 29 · 00:10M. Lewczuk1.839660A. Krezel1.831111113WSep 28 · 23:30A. Barton3.7511580A. Krezel1.251311113LSep 28 · 22:50A. Krezel1.91128119132K. Kwiatkowski1.801011711153LSep 28 · 21:45A. Krezel2.5011117382H. Tkaczyk1.50671111113WSep 28 · 20:05A. Krezel2.251111133Z. Nocun1.5754110WSep 28 · 18:30M. Lewczuk1.739770A. Krezel2.001111113
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