TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Arkadiusz Skupinski vs Aleksander Barton 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117117––––
Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched: 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Skupinski to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArkadiusz Skupinski above · Aleksander Barton below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 52 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Arkadiusz Skupinski at 66.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Arkadiusz Skupinski 7–3 Aleksander Barton Aleksander Barton has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Skupinski beat Barton 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:1566.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 0.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Skupinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Skupinski
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skupinski 1226 vs Barton 1035
Skupinski
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skupinski 40% vs Barton 0%
Skupinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skupinski 30% vs Barton 0%
Skupinski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skupinski -1 · Barton -10
Barton
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Skupinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Barton form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkupinski 1.50 / Barton 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Skupinski)-0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13223048
Skupinski1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite46% won 16 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it83% 10 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Barton2.50
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 10
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog15% won 33 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back5% 9 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkupinski7wins
AwayBarton3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkupinski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkupinski85.7%6 of 7
AwayBarton66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skupinski7Barton3n = 10Skupinski took 7 of 10
S2Skupinski8Barton2n = 10Skupinski took 8 of 10
S3Skupinski6Barton4n = 10Skupinski took 6 of 10
S4Skupinski1Barton5n = 6Barton took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkupinskiBartonS − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.131.5+5.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkupinskiBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 410 vs 87 / 41238.1%21.1%156 / 410 vs 87 / 412Avg sets wonper match1.71.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.031.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SkupinskiSkupinski 1.50/Barton 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Skupinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skupinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 15:25A. Skupinski331111113A. Barton182790
WJun 15 · 03:10A. Skupinski4011116123A. Barton317311101
WApr 29 · 23:55A. Skupinski351113113A. Barton2271140
LApr 29 · 17:55A. Skupinski28113771A. Barton4291111113
LApr 16 · 02:45A. Skupinski30811741A. Barton4111811113
LApr 15 · 23:05A. Skupinski3811111151A. Barton4513138113
WMar 26 · 02:55A. Skupinski331111113A. Barton196760
WMar 25 · 20:55A. Skupinski331111113A. Barton207670
WDec 24 · 05:40A. Skupinski49111188113A. Barton3638111132
WDec 23 · 23:40A. Skupinski528111111113A. Barton4111561362
A. Skupinski10
WOct 1 · 22:10M. Leczycki1.20101180A. Skupinski4.331213113LOct 1 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.7561040M. Leczycki1.401112113WOct 1 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.401111149113A. Krezel1.30513121192LOct 1 · 17:20A. Skupinski2.3857100Z. Nocun1.531111123LOct 1 · 16:15A. Fomin1.36861111113A. Skupinski3.0011119872WOct 1 · 15:25A. Skupinski1.501111113A. Barton2.502790LSep 30 · 19:40M. Lewczuk1.5011118113A. Skupinski2.50871161LSep 30 · 18:55G. Mucha1.57111111113A. Skupinski2.25139671LSep 30 · 18:10A. Skupinski2.201012991J. Skorupa1.61121011113LSep 30 · 16:35A. Skupinski2.631151110112Z. Nocun1.44711812133
A. Barton10
LOct 1 · 20:30A. Fomin1.06111158113A. Barton8.00911131182LOct 1 · 19:20A. Barton7.50611781Z. Nocun1.0711311113LOct 1 · 18:10M. Leczycki1.25119114113A. Barton3.7581171152LOct 1 · 16:55A. Krezel1.101111113A. Barton6.507290LOct 1 · 15:25A. Skupinski1.501111113A. Barton2.502790LSep 29 · 01:50A. Barton4.003850K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113LSep 29 · 00:30A. Barton5.501061171H. Tkaczyk1.1312118113LSep 28 · 23:30A. Barton3.7511580A. Krezel1.251311113LSep 28 · 22:10A. Barton7.5011115952M. Lewczuk1.07981111113LSep 28 · 21:00A. Barton6.5061180Z. Nocun1.101113113
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