TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Leczycki vs Andriej Fomin 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Mariusz Leczycki
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–3Last 8Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611611119611––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:51 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Leczycki above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Andriej Fomin at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Leczycki 1–0 Andriej Fomin Andriej Fomin has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Leczycki beat Fomin 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:5154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Leczycki 1425 vs Fomin 1453
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leczycki 60% vs Fomin 80%
Fomin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leczycki 63% vs Fomin 70%
—
Too close
8pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Leczycki -2 · Fomin +4
Fomin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Fomin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeczycki 1.909 / Fomin 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fomin)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13228647
Leczycki1.91
63%won 5 of 8 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 4 of 8
Fomin1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite72% won 298 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it98% 165 of 169
Up 1–0, closes it90% 229 of 255
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLeczycki1wins
AwayFomin0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderLeczycki leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLeczyckiFominL − FBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match56.045.0+11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeczyckiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 8 vs 572 / 97662.5%58.6%5 / 8 vs 572 / 976Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FominLeczycki 1.91/Fomin 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 1 · 18:55M. Leczycki561191311123A. Fomin45311156102
M. Leczycki9
WOct 2 · 02:35M. Leczycki1.111111113A. Barton6.008590LOct 1 · 23:45M. Leczycki1.73711851A. Krezel2.0011711113LOct 1 · 22:10M. Leczycki1.20101180A. Skupinski4.331213113WOct 1 · 21:00M. Leczycki1.57411811123Z. Nocun2.25119118102WOct 1 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.7561040M. Leczycki1.401112113WOct 1 · 18:55A. Fomin1.67311156102M. Leczycki2.101191311123WOct 1 · 18:10M. Leczycki1.25119114113A. Barton3.7581171152WOct 1 · 16:35M. Leczycki2.0012115113Z. Nocun1.731071181LOct 1 · 15:50A. Krezel—111410113M. Leczycki—8121291
A. Fomin10
WOct 2 · 01:45A. Skupinski2.6381060A. Fomin1.441112113WOct 2 · 00:10A. Fomin1.084111110113A. Barton7.0011391252WOct 1 · 22:35A. Fomin2.0011138133Z. Nocun1.7361111111WOct 1 · 21:45A. Krezel1.80811611142A. Fomin1.91119116163WOct 1 · 20:30A. Fomin1.06111158113A. Barton8.00911131182LOct 1 · 18:55A. Fomin1.67311156102M. Leczycki2.101191311123WOct 1 · 17:45A. Fomin1.91117911143A. Krezel1.80811117122WOct 1 · 16:15A. Fomin1.36861111113A. Skupinski3.0011119872LOct 1 · 15:00A. Fomin2.00451131Z. Nocun1.7311117113WOct 1 · 05:05A. Fomin1.8981111113A. Staniczek1.83118321
Upcoming Matches
M. Leczycki
Nothing scheduled
A. Fomin
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