TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mariusz Leczycki vs Aleksander Barton 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Mariusz Leczycki
Home
1.11
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–4Last 9Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115119––––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:31 and never touched: 84.4% is still 84.4%
Graded at full timeMariusz Leczycki to win
84.4%
84.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Leczycki above · Aleksander Barton below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Mariusz Leczycki at 84.4%
55 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Leczycki 1–0 Aleksander Barton Aleksander Barton has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Leczycki beat Barton 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:3184.4%Our read90.0%to break even at 1.111
short by 5.6pp90.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.111 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Leczycki
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Leczycki 1376 vs Barton 1047
Leczycki
Correct
both rated, 329 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leczycki 40% vs Barton 20%
Leczycki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leczycki 56% vs Barton 10%
Leczycki
Correct
46pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leczycki -3 · Barton -2
Leczycki
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% · Strong (leans Leczycki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leczycki form (40%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeczycki 1.111 / Barton 6.00
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Leczycki)-5.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13228726
Leczycki1.11
56%won 5 of 9 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
Barton6.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog15% won 33 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back5% 9 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLeczycki1wins
AwayBarton0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderLeczycki leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLeczyckiBartonL − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match46.042.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeczyckiBartonBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 9 vs 88 / 41655.6%21.2%5 / 9 vs 88 / 416Avg sets wonper match2.01.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.031.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LeczyckiLeczycki 1.11/Barton 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.4%
Leczycki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Leczycki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 1 · 18:10M. Leczycki46119114113A. Barton4281171152
M. Leczycki9
LOct 2 · 01:00M. Leczycki1.91661161A. Fomin1.8011119113LOct 1 · 23:45M. Leczycki1.73711851A. Krezel2.0011711113LOct 1 · 22:10M. Leczycki1.20101180A. Skupinski4.331213113WOct 1 · 21:00M. Leczycki1.57411811123Z. Nocun2.25119118102WOct 1 · 19:40A. Skupinski2.7561040M. Leczycki1.401112113WOct 1 · 18:55A. Fomin1.67311156102M. Leczycki2.101191311123WOct 1 · 18:10M. Leczycki1.25119114113A. Barton3.7581171152WOct 1 · 16:35M. Leczycki2.0012115113Z. Nocun1.731071181LOct 1 · 15:50A. Krezel—111410113M. Leczycki—8121291
A. Barton10
LOct 2 · 01:25A. Barton7.50881171Z. Nocun1.0711112113LOct 2 · 00:10A. Fomin1.084111110113A. Barton7.0011391252WOct 1 · 22:55A. Krezel1.05711121192A. Barton8.50118147113LOct 1 · 21:20A. Skupinski1.501111113A. Barton2.505770LOct 1 · 20:30A. Fomin1.06111158113A. Barton8.00911131182LOct 1 · 19:20A. Barton7.50611781Z. Nocun1.0711311113LOct 1 · 18:10M. Leczycki1.25119114113A. Barton3.7581171152LOct 1 · 16:55A. Krezel1.101111113A. Barton6.507290LOct 1 · 15:25A. Skupinski1.501111113A. Barton2.502790LSep 29 · 01:50A. Barton4.003850K. Kwiatkowski1.221111113
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