TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Andrzej Krezel vs Zbigniew Nocun 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511311––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:01 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Nocun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrzej Krezel above · Zbigniew Nocun below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 48 set 3, 3-11 · our read held Zbigniew Nocun at 54.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Andrzej Krezel 6–6 Zbigniew Nocun Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Krezel beat Nocun 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:0154.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nocun
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krezel 1444 vs Nocun 1453
Nocun
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krezel 60% vs Nocun 40%
Krezel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krezel 50% vs Nocun 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krezel +2 · Nocun +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Nocun) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nocun form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrezel 2.00 / Nocun 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nocun)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222865
Krezel2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 62 of 190
Down 0–1, comes back13% 14 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Nocun1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 328 of 495
Up 2–0, closes it94% 161 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it86% 238 of 278
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrezel4wins
AwayNocun6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNocun leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrezel50%3 of 6
AwayNocun75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krezel6Nocun4n = 10Krezel took 6 of 10
S2Krezel3Nocun7n = 10Nocun took 7 of 10
S3Krezel5Nocun5n = 10split evenly
S4Krezel3Nocun5n = 8Nocun took 5 of 8
S5Krezel2Nocun2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrezelNocunK − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.941.1+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrezelNocunBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 279 vs 718 / 119839.1%59.9%109 / 279 vs 718 / 1198Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NocunKrezel 2.00/Nocun 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nocun · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nocun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 20:05A. Krezel47111213113Z. Nocun409101561
LSep 29 · 01:30A. Krezel2988130Z. Nocun371111153
WSep 28 · 20:05A. Krezel351111133Z. Nocun2054110
WSep 17 · 02:20A. Krezel50981111113Z. Nocun3611114642
LSep 16 · 18:20A. Krezel411114881Z. Nocun4461611113
LAug 26 · 21:20A. Krezel501114112122Z. Nocun56916611143
LAug 26 · 15:25A. Krezel358511111Z. Nocun4211117133
LAug 20 · 22:35A. Krezel4899111182Z. Nocun50111189113
LAug 20 · 15:00A. Krezel4111131071Z. Nocun4241512113
WAug 20 · 00:45A. Krezel531111128113Z. Nocun4485141162
A. Krezel10
WOct 2 · 00:35A. Skupinski2.75117831A. Krezel1.4081111113WOct 1 · 23:45M. Leczycki1.73711851A. Krezel2.0011711113LOct 1 · 22:55A. Krezel1.05711121192A. Barton8.50118147113LOct 1 · 21:45A. Krezel1.80811611142A. Fomin1.91119116163WOct 1 · 20:05A. Krezel1.67111213113Z. Nocun2.109101561LOct 1 · 18:30A. Skupinski3.401111149113A. Krezel1.30513121192LOct 1 · 17:45A. Fomin1.91117911143A. Krezel1.80811117122WOct 1 · 16:55A. Krezel1.101111113A. Barton6.507290WOct 1 · 15:50A. Krezel—111410113M. Leczycki—8121291LSep 29 · 01:30A. Krezel2.1088130Z. Nocun1.671111153
Z. Nocun10
WOct 2 · 01:25A. Barton7.50881171Z. Nocun1.0711112113WOct 1 · 23:20A. Skupinski2.2563111152Z. Nocun1.57111189113LOct 1 · 22:35A. Fomin2.0011138133Z. Nocun1.7361111111LOct 1 · 21:00M. Leczycki1.57411811123Z. Nocun2.25119118102LOct 1 · 20:05A. Krezel1.67111213113Z. Nocun2.109101561WOct 1 · 19:20A. Barton7.50611781Z. Nocun1.0711311113WOct 1 · 17:20A. Skupinski2.3857100Z. Nocun1.531111123LOct 1 · 16:35M. Leczycki2.0012115113Z. Nocun1.731071181WOct 1 · 15:00A. Fomin2.00451131Z. Nocun1.7311117113WSep 29 · 01:30A. Krezel2.1088130Z. Nocun1.671111153
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