TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Pyrek vs Andriej Fomin 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6115111315––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:16 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeAndriej Fomin to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Pyrek above · Andriej Fomin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Point 61 set 3, 13-15 · our read held Andriej Fomin at 65.7%
61 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Pyrek 5–8 Andriej Fomin Dawid Pyrek has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Fomin beat Pyrek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:1665.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Fomin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Fomin
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pyrek 1266 vs Fomin 1453
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 187 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pyrek 40% vs Fomin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pyrek 40% vs Fomin 70%
Fomin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pyrek -2 · Fomin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Fomin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPyrek 2.50 / Fomin 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Fomin)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13239265
Pyrek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog30% won 56 of 187
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 79
Fomin1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 301 of 418
Up 2–0, closes it98% 166 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it90% 231 of 257
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePyrek3wins
AwayFomin7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFomin leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePyrek75%3 of 4
AwayFomin100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pyrek4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S2Pyrek5Fomin5n = 10split evenly
S3Pyrek4Fomin6n = 10Fomin took 6 of 10
S4Pyrek3Fomin4n = 7Fomin took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPyrekFominP − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.3−3.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPyrekFominBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 766 vs 581 / 98848.7%58.8%373 / 766 vs 581 / 988Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FominPyrek 2.50/Fomin 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 02:35D. Pyrek2465130A. Fomin371111153
LOct 3 · 18:10D. Pyrek4451111892A. Fomin49117911113
LSep 20 · 00:00D. Pyrek341111841A. Fomin4313811113
WSep 19 · 16:00D. Pyrek44111111113A. Fomin35691371
LJun 25 · 03:30D. Pyrek41111011182A. Fomin52912119113
LJun 24 · 21:30D. Pyrek4011411141A. Fomin4513115163
LJun 5 · 02:10D. Pyrek239860A. Fomin331111113
WJun 4 · 23:05D. Pyrek351111133A. Fomin2274110
WOct 20 · 07:35D. Pyrek3811511113A. Fomin29811281
LOct 11 · 22:00D. Pyrek29911541A. Fomin3811511113
D. Pyrek10
LOct 4 · 01:00D. Pyrek2.506770G. Mucha1.461111113LOct 3 · 23:45D. Pyrek1.28911111132D. Maszczynski3.50111393113WOct 3 · 22:10D. Pyrek1.8381111113P. Gesiarz1.83119791LOct 3 · 21:00D. Pyrek2.5010830M. Karpiuk1.501211113WOct 3 · 19:40P. Gesiarz1.839111161D. Pyrek1.8311134113LOct 3 · 18:55G. Mucha1.441111113D. Pyrek2.635360LOct 3 · 18:10D. Pyrek2.2551111892A. Fomin1.57117911113WOct 3 · 16:35D. Pyrek2.50133119113M. Karpiuk1.50111181182WOct 3 · 15:50D. Maszczynski3.50111011692D. Pyrek1.28612611113LSep 20 · 02:20D. Pyrek1.868118131J. Skorupa1.8011911153
A. Fomin10
LOct 4 · 01:25A. Fomin1.838111491M. Karpiuk1.8311616113LOct 4 · 00:10G. Mucha2.2091211133A. Fomin1.6111109111WOct 3 · 22:55D. Maszczynski5.006660A. Fomin1.141111113WOct 3 · 21:20P. Gesiarz2.7571170A. Fomin1.401113113LOct 3 · 20:30G. Mucha2.631111113A. Fomin1.448380WOct 3 · 19:20A. Fomin1.83117119113M. Karpiuk1.8361161192WOct 3 · 18:10D. Pyrek2.2551111892A. Fomin1.57117911113WOct 3 · 16:55D. Maszczynski5.00111141162A. Fomin1.14139119113WOct 3 · 15:25P. Gesiarz2.63411681A. Fomin1.4411511113WOct 2 · 01:45A. Skupinski2.6381060A. Fomin1.441112113
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