TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Serdiuk vs Oleksandr Kolos 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115116311119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:50 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeIhor Serdiuk to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Serdiuk above · Oleksandr Kolos below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 67 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Ihor Serdiuk at 64.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Serdiuk 16–11 Oleksandr Kolos Oleksandr Kolos has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5064.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Serdiuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-11 in 27
Serdiuk
Correct
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serdiuk 1259 vs Kolos 1126
Serdiuk
Correct
both rated, 133 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serdiuk 60% vs Kolos 20%
Serdiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serdiuk 50% vs Kolos 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Serdiuk +2 · Kolos -3
Kolos
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Serdiuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolos form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerdiuk 1.444 / Kolos 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Serdiuk)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270633
Serdiuk1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite71% won 70 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it86% 48 of 56
Kolos2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 27 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSerdiuk6wins
AwayKolos4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSerdiuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerdiuk75%3 of 4
AwayKolos50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serdiuk4Kolos6n = 10Kolos took 6 of 10
S2Serdiuk4Kolos6n = 10Kolos took 6 of 10
S3Serdiuk8Kolos2n = 10Serdiuk took 8 of 10
S4Serdiuk6Kolos1n = 7Serdiuk took 6 of 7
S5Serdiuk1Kolos2n = 3Kolos took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSerdiukKolosS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.235.9+4.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerdiukKolosBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 323 vs 167 / 31567.5%53%218 / 323 vs 167 / 315Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SerdiukSerdiuk 1.44/Kolos 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Serdiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Serdiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 05:30I. Serdiuk4288111142O. Kolos47111186113
LSep 5 · 11:30I. Serdiuk2688100O. Kolos341111123
WAug 29 · 05:30I. Serdiuk331111113O. Kolos195950
LAug 22 · 05:30I. Serdiuk35116991O. Kolos4071111113
LAug 1 · 11:00I. Serdiuk5310111111102O. Kolos53121397123
WMay 9 · 09:00I. Serdiuk4261111143O. Kolos401198121
WMay 2 · 05:30I. Serdiuk49961211113O. Kolos37111110322
WApr 25 · 05:30I. Serdiuk45121111113O. Kolos33147571
WApr 18 · 05:30I. Serdiuk4111811113O. Kolos29511851
WApr 11 · 08:00I. Serdiuk361112133O. Kolos27610110
I. Serdiuk10
WOct 10 · 09:00R. Boklah3.75651131I. Serdiuk1.2511116113WOct 10 · 08:00I. Serdiuk1.101211113D. Aldayev6.5010690LOct 10 · 05:30I. Serdiuk1.171111105172V. Klymenko4.50341211193WSep 12 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.251111113R. Boklah3.759950LSep 12 · 09:30S. Priadko2.50881112113I. Serdiuk1.50111171092LSep 12 · 07:30A. Fastov3.0031214113I. Serdiuk1.3611101271WSep 12 · 06:30I. Serdiuk1.911212113I. Torhachov1.80101070LSep 12 · 05:30O. Kolos2.63111186113I. Serdiuk1.4488111142WSep 6 · 17:00I. Torhachov2.2590I. Serdiuk1.57111WSep 6 · 16:30I. Serdiuk2.7511116113V. Ziakun1.40631141
O. Kolos10
LOct 10 · 10:00D. Aldayev2.7551111123O. Kolos1.401188101LOct 10 · 08:30A. Fastov1.8091111133O. Kolos1.911187111LOct 10 · 06:30V. Klymenko3.401118113O. Kolos1.3081680WOct 10 · 04:30R. Boklah1.73113971O. Kolos2.0051111113LOct 7 · 17:13R. Boklah1.73511614123O. Kolos2.001181112102WOct 7 · 16:00O. Kolos2.10811814113R. Boklah1.67117111282WOct 7 · 15:00V. Ivnytskyi3.75613371O. Kolos1.25111111113LOct 7 · 14:00D. Aldayev3.407111511113O. Kolos1.3011917852WOct 7 · 12:30V. Klymenko3.5091111792O. Kolos1.28117811113WSep 12 · 05:30O. Kolos2.63111186113I. Serdiuk1.4488111142
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