TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Serdiuk vs Denis Aldayev 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116119––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:54 and never touched: 87.1% is still 87.1%
Graded at full timeIhor Serdiuk to win
87.1%
87.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Serdiuk above · Denis Aldayev below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 59 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Ihor Serdiuk at 87.1%
59 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Serdiuk 8–1 Denis Aldayev Denis Aldayev has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5487.1%Our read90.9%to break even at 1.10
short by 3.8pp90.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.10 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Serdiuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-1 in 9
Serdiuk
Correct
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serdiuk 1248 vs Aldayev 978
Serdiuk
Correct
both rated, 270 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serdiuk 40% vs Aldayev 60%
Aldayev
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serdiuk 40% vs Aldayev 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Serdiuk -1 · Aldayev +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% · Strong (leans Serdiuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerdiuk 1.10 / Aldayev 6.50
Signal prob.87% / 13%
Edge (Serdiuk)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270314
Serdiuk1.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 70 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it86% 48 of 56
Aldayev6.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog30% won 23 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSerdiuk8wins
AwayAldayev1wins
1 of 9 to a deciderSerdiuk leads 8–1, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerdiuk100%7 of 7
AwayAldayevn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serdiuk7Aldayev2n = 9Serdiuk took 7 of 9
S2Serdiuk5Aldayev4n = 9Serdiuk took 5 of 9
S3Serdiuk8Aldayev1n = 9Serdiuk took 8 of 9
S4Serdiuk4Aldayev2n = 6Serdiuk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricSerdiukAldayevS − ABasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match40.332.4+7.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerdiukAldayevBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 321 vs 112 / 26967.3%41.6%216 / 321 vs 112 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SerdiukSerdiuk 1.10/Aldayev 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
87.1%
Serdiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Serdiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WApr 25 · 08:00I. Serdiuk4291111113D. Aldayev28116651
WApr 18 · 08:00I. Serdiuk331111113D. Aldayev259880
WFeb 28 · 12:00I. Serdiuk331111113D. Aldayev152670
WFeb 21 · 09:59I. Serdiuk48141112113D. Aldayev401261481
WJan 24 · 10:00I. Serdiuk4313711123D. Aldayev3811116101
WJan 10 · 07:30I. Serdiuk521210118113D. Aldayev49101281182
WNov 29 · 06:30I. Serdiuk331111113D. Aldayev229760
LNov 15 · 08:00I. Serdiuk391361191D. Aldayev4115114113
WOct 4 · 07:00I. Serdiuk4011513113D. Aldayev346111161
I. Serdiuk10
LOct 10 · 05:30I. Serdiuk1.171111105172V. Klymenko4.50341211193WSep 12 · 11:30I. Serdiuk1.251111113R. Boklah3.759950LSep 12 · 09:30S. Priadko2.50881112113I. Serdiuk1.50111171092LSep 12 · 07:30A. Fastov3.0031214113I. Serdiuk1.3611101271WSep 12 · 06:30I. Serdiuk1.911212113I. Torhachov1.80101070LSep 12 · 05:30O. Kolos2.63111186113I. Serdiuk1.4488111142WSep 6 · 17:00I. Torhachov2.2590I. Serdiuk1.57111WSep 6 · 16:30I. Serdiuk2.7511116113V. Ziakun1.40631141LSep 6 · 15:30I. Serdiuk1.91671121I. Torhachov1.801111733WSep 6 · 14:00I. Serdiuk1.5711713113S. Priadko2.255111151
D. Aldayev10
WOct 10 · 06:00R. Boklah1.2851171152D. Aldayev3.50115117113LOct 10 · 05:00A. Fastov1.251114113D. Aldayev3.7581280WOct 7 · 17:44V. Ivnytskyi1.50461121D. Aldayev2.5011119113LOct 7 · 16:30D. Aldayev2.63111181192V. Ivnytskyi1.44913118113WOct 7 · 15:30D. Aldayev2.00113911113V. Klymenko1.7381111782WOct 7 · 14:00D. Aldayev3.407111511113O. Kolos1.3011917852LOct 7 · 13:00D. Aldayev4.0011881162R. Boklah1.22911117113WOct 5 · 17:18D. Aldayev2.50111110113V. Klymenko1.50971271LOct 5 · 16:00D. Aldayev3.4011921192O. Kolos1.30911118113LOct 5 · 15:00R. Boklah1.255111011113D. Aldayev3.7511512552
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