TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Boklah vs Denis Aldayev 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111151012115115
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:48 and never touched: 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeRoman Boklah to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Boklah above · Denis Aldayev below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 86 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Roman Boklah at 81.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Roman Boklah 32–5 Denis Aldayev Denis Aldayev has won 5 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:4881.3%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
clears by 1.3pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Boklah
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-5 in 37
Boklah
Correct
gap of 27 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Boklah 1116 vs Aldayev 934
Boklah
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Boklah 80% vs Aldayev 40%
Boklah
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Boklah 60% vs Aldayev 30%
Boklah
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Boklah +3 · Aldayev +1
Boklah
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Boklah) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBoklah 1.25 / Aldayev 3.75
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Boklah)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13245409
Boklah1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 68 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it82% 46 of 56
Aldayev3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 21 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBoklah7wins
AwayAldayev3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBoklah leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBoklah77.8%7 of 9
AwayAldayevn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Boklah9Aldayev1n = 10Boklah took 9 of 10
S2Boklah7Aldayev3n = 10Boklah took 7 of 10
S3Boklah4Aldayev6n = 10Aldayev took 6 of 10
S4Boklah4Aldayev3n = 7Boklah took 4 of 7
S5Boklah2Aldayev2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBoklahAldayevB − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.836.3+3.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBoklahAldayevBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 616 vs 107 / 25941.7%41.3%257 / 616 vs 107 / 259Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.635.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BoklahBoklah 1.25/Aldayev 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Boklah · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Boklah won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 08:30R. Boklah331111113D. Aldayev197750
LSep 30 · 13:00R. Boklah34118961D. Aldayev3741111113
WSep 28 · 16:30R. Boklah4311119123D. Aldayev339311101
WSep 26 · 08:30R. Boklah3911116113D. Aldayev31941171
LSep 23 · 13:00R. Boklah5081471742D. Aldayev6011121115113
WSep 21 · 13:00R. Boklah46116511133D. Aldayev47711117112
LSep 19 · 07:30R. Boklah42111131162D. Aldayev49591113113
WJul 13 · 16:59R. Boklah341211113D. Aldayev2310490
WJul 13 · 16:00R. Boklah331111113D. Aldayev227870
WJul 4 · 11:00R. Boklah44125115113D. Aldayev42101161142
R. Boklah10
WOct 5 · 13:30R. Boklah1.6711811113V. Klymenko2.10511681WOct 5 · 12:00R. Boklah1.5711812113O. Kolos2.254111061WOct 3 · 11:00V. Ivnytskyi3.00141111892R. Boklah1.36167711113LOct 3 · 10:00A. Fastov1.83141111113R. Boklah1.83167961WOct 3 · 08:30D. Aldayev3.507750R. Boklah1.281111113LOct 3 · 06:30V. Klymenko2.251111113R. Boklah1.572650LOct 3 · 04:30O. Kolos2.501111113R. Boklah1.505830LSep 30 · 17:28R. Boklah1.4478111152O. Kolos2.63111188113WSep 30 · 16:00V. Klymenko2.209111291R. Boklah1.6111514113WSep 30 · 14:30V. Ivnytskyi3.2561181162R. Boklah1.33115119113
D. Aldayev10
WOct 5 · 14:00Y. Priadko1.8341191132D. Aldayev1.83117116113LOct 5 · 12:30V. Klymenko1.731311113D. Aldayev2.0011770LOct 3 · 10:30O. Kolos1.3381114113D. Aldayev3.251191271WOct 3 · 09:30D. Aldayev2.2011114133V. Klymenko1.617511111LOct 3 · 08:30D. Aldayev3.507750R. Boklah1.281111113LOct 3 · 07:00D. Aldayev2.751051191V. Ivnytskyi1.4012119113WOct 3 · 05:00D. Aldayev4.331191111113A. Fastov1.2051113882LSep 30 · 16:30D. Aldayev2.5010560O. Kolos1.501211113LSep 30 · 15:30D. Aldayev2.63119591V. Ivnytskyi1.4451111113LSep 30 · 14:00D. Aldayev2.1011881192V. Klymenko1.67511118113
Upcoming Matches
R. Boklah
D. Aldayev
Nothing scheduled
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