TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denis Aldayev vs Andrii Fastov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1159111113118118
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:52 and never touched: 84.6% is still 84.6%
Graded at full timeAndrii Fastov to win
84.6%
84.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Andrii Fastov below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 98 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Andrii Fastov at 84.6%
98 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 4–16 Andrii Fastov Denis Aldayev has won 4 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5284.6%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
clears by 1.3pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Fastov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-16 in 20
Fastov
Wrong
gap of 12 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 921 vs Fastov 1229
Fastov
Wrong
both rated, 308 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 20% vs Fastov 80%
Fastov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 30% vs Fastov 80%
Fastov
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev -3 · Fastov +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% · Strong (leans Fastov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 4.333 / Fastov 1.20
Signal prob.15% / 85%
Edge (Fastov)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13234288
Aldayev4.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 19 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back14% 6 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Fastov1.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 28)
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite77% won 68 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it90% 54 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev0wins
AwayFastov10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFastov leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayev0%0 of 3
AwayFastov100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev3Fastov7n = 10Fastov took 7 of 10
S2Aldayev3Fastov7n = 10Fastov took 7 of 10
S3Aldayev2Fastov8n = 10Fastov took 8 of 10
S4Aldayev2Fastov5n = 7Fastov took 5 of 7
S5Aldayev0Fastov3n = 3Fastov took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevFastovA − FBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.441.8−9.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevFastovBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 252 vs 123 / 23241.3%53%104 / 252 vs 123 / 232Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FastovAldayev 4.33/Fastov 1.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
84.6%
Fastov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Aldayev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 15:30D. Aldayev33119671A. Fastov4071111113
LSep 26 · 06:30D. Aldayev47811711102A. Fastov46115117123
LAug 15 · 10:00D. Aldayev3851121192A. Fastov48117118113
LJul 18 · 05:00D. Aldayev249780A. Fastov331111113
LJul 11 · 09:30D. Aldayev4211116772A. Fastov51991111113
LJul 4 · 05:30D. Aldayev215970A. Fastov331111113
LJul 1 · 12:00D. Aldayev3914101141A. Fastov48121213113
LJun 27 · 11:00D. Aldayev366111181A. Fastov4311138113
LApr 25 · 06:00D. Aldayev176470A. Fastov331111113
LApr 12 · 13:00D. Aldayev27461251A. Fastov43111110113
D. Aldayev10
LSep 30 · 16:30D. Aldayev2.5010560O. Kolos1.501211113LSep 30 · 15:30D. Aldayev2.63119591V. Ivnytskyi1.4451111113LSep 30 · 14:00D. Aldayev2.1011881192V. Klymenko1.67511118113WSep 30 · 13:00D. Aldayev4.3341111113R. Boklah1.20118961LSep 28 · 17:05V. Klymenko1.73119211123D. Aldayev2.00711117102LSep 28 · 16:30D. Aldayev4.339311101R. Boklah1.2011119123LSep 28 · 15:30D. Aldayev4.00119671A. Fastov1.2271111113WSep 28 · 14:00D. Aldayev2.25111115113V. Klymenko1.57911781WSep 28 · 13:00D. Aldayev3.401111113O. Kolos1.306880LSep 26 · 08:30D. Aldayev4.00941171R. Boklah1.2211116113
A. Fastov10
LOct 3 · 06:00O. Kolos2.1011115113A. Fastov1.67781151WSep 28 · 17:34A. Fastov1.835111012113R. Boklah1.83116121092WSep 28 · 15:30D. Aldayev4.00119671A. Fastov1.2271111113WSep 28 · 14:30A. Fastov1.73811611113O. Kolos2.0011311982WSep 28 · 13:30R. Boklah1.67411681A. Fastov2.1011911113LSep 28 · 12:30A. Fastov1.14311811102V. Klymenko5.00116117123WSep 26 · 10:19R. Boklah1.5061190A. Fastov2.501113113WSep 26 · 09:00A. Fastov1.80711711123O. Kolos1.91119118102WSep 26 · 08:00A. Fastov1.13511811113V. Klymenko5.5011711772WSep 26 · 06:30A. Fastov1.20115117123D. Aldayev4.33811711102
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