TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denis Aldayev vs Roman Boklah 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911411116711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:46 and never touched — 82.9% is still 82.9%
Graded at full timeRoman Boklah to win
82.9%
82.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenis Aldayev above · Roman Boklah below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Roman Boklah at 82.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Denis Aldayev 4–29 Roman Boklah Denis Aldayev has won 4 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Boklah
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-29 in 33
Boklah
Correct
gap of 25 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Aldayev 910 vs Boklah 1153
Boklah
Correct
both rated, 243 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Aldayev 0% vs Boklah 80%
Boklah
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Aldayev 20% vs Boklah 60%
Boklah
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Aldayev -7 · Boklah +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% — Strong (leans Boklah)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Aldayev form (0%) is below what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAldayev 4.00 / Boklah 1.22
Signal prob.17% / 83%
Edge (Boklah)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13196237
Aldayev4.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 16 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back14% 5 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Boklah1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 57 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it80% 37 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAldayev2wins
AwayBoklah8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBoklah leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAldayevn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBoklah87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Aldayev2Boklah8n = 10Boklah took 8 of 10
S2Aldayev2Boklah8n = 10Boklah took 8 of 10
S3Aldayev5Boklah5n = 10split evenly
S4Aldayev2Boklah4n = 6Boklah took 4 of 6
S5Aldayev2Boklah3n = 5Boklah took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricAldayevBoklahA − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.940.4−4.5per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAldayevBoklahBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 242 vs 256 / 60741.7%42.2%101 / 242 vs 256 / 607Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.935.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoklahAldayev 4.00/Boklah 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.9%
Boklah · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Boklah won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 13:00D. Aldayev6011121115113R. Boklah5081471742
LSep 21 · 13:00D. Aldayev47711117112R. Boklah46116511133
WSep 19 · 07:30D. Aldayev49591113113R. Boklah42111131162
LJul 13 · 16:59D. Aldayev2310490R. Boklah341211113
LJul 13 · 16:00D. Aldayev227870R. Boklah331111113
LJul 4 · 11:00D. Aldayev42101161142R. Boklah44125115113
LJun 25 · 13:00D. Aldayev227960R. Boklah331111113
LApr 30 · 16:30D. Aldayev4511811872R. Boklah47711711113
LApr 12 · 12:00D. Aldayev27571141R. Boklah4211119113
LMar 25 · 15:00D. Aldayev227690R. Boklah331111113
D. Aldayev10
LSep 26 · 07:30O. Kolos1.331112123D. Aldayev3.25510100LSep 26 · 06:30A. Fastov1.20115117123D. Aldayev4.33811711102LSep 26 · 05:00V. Klymenko1.6711116113D. Aldayev2.10731191LSep 23 · 16:59V. Ivnytskyi1.731111113D. Aldayev2.009690LSep 23 · 16:30D. Aldayev3.2565100O. Kolos1.331111123LSep 23 · 15:30D. Aldayev2.10911411102V. Klymenko1.67118117123LSep 23 · 14:00D. Aldayev2.20118111082V. Ivnytskyi1.61811912113WSep 23 · 13:00D. Aldayev4.3311121115113R. Boklah1.2081471742WSep 21 · 16:30D. Aldayev2.75121169113O. Kolos1.40109111192LSep 21 · 15:30D. Aldayev2.1011119622V. Ivnytskyi1.67481111113
R. Boklah10
WSep 26 · 07:00V. Klymenko2.2010890R. Boklah1.611211113WSep 26 · 05:30A. Fastov2.3881490R. Boklah1.531116113WSep 26 · 04:30O. Kolos2.6389111172R. Boklah1.44111197113WSep 23 · 16:00V. Ivnytskyi3.2511108101R. Boklah1.3371211123LSep 23 · 14:30V. Klymenko2.381111113R. Boklah1.534590LSep 23 · 13:00D. Aldayev4.3311121115113R. Boklah1.2081471742LSep 23 · 12:00O. Kolos2.7511614113R. Boklah1.404111271WSep 21 · 17:28R. Boklah1.4451111113O. Kolos2.63115571WSep 21 · 16:00V. Klymenko2.75114711102R. Boklah1.40711114123LSep 21 · 14:30V. Ivnytskyi4.50117118113R. Boklah1.1741161152
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