TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Andrii Fastov vs Oleksandr Kolos 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111181171311––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:25 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeAndrii Fastov to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Fastov above · Oleksandr Kolos below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 81 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Andrii Fastov at 54.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Fastov 14–12 Oleksandr Kolos Oleksandr Kolos has won 12 of their 26 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:2554.7%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.9pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fastov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-12 in 26
Fastov
Correct
gap of 2 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fastov 1225 vs Kolos 1153
Fastov
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fastov 80% vs Kolos 60%
Fastov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fastov 80% vs Kolos 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fastov +4 · Kolos -1
Fastov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Fastov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fastov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFastov 1.80 / Kolos 1.909
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Fastov)-0.9pp
Setka Cup · #13270368
Fastov1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite76% won 69 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it90% 55 of 61
Kolos1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 27 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFastov4wins
AwayKolos6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolos leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFastov33.3%1 of 3
AwayKolos57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fastov3Kolos7n = 10Kolos took 7 of 10
S2Fastov6Kolos4n = 10Fastov took 6 of 10
S3Fastov3Kolos7n = 10Kolos took 7 of 10
S4Fastov5Kolos4n = 9Fastov took 5 of 9
S5Fastov3Kolos3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFastovKolosF − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.044.7−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFastovKolosBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 238 vs 167 / 31353.4%53.4%127 / 238 vs 167 / 313Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FastovFastov 1.80/Kolos 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Fastov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fastov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 3 · 06:00A. Fastov31781151O. Kolos3811115113
WSep 28 · 14:30A. Fastov47811611113O. Kolos4211311982
WSep 26 · 09:00A. Fastov48711711123O. Kolos49119118102
WSep 12 · 09:00A. Fastov48591112113O. Kolos48111171092
LSep 5 · 08:00A. Fastov45931211102O. Kolos471111103123
LAug 29 · 09:30A. Fastov5611237782O. Kolos639211111113
LAug 22 · 09:30A. Fastov49111468102O. Kolos559121111123
LAug 15 · 08:00A. Fastov31811931O. Kolos4111811113
WAug 10 · 15:00A. Fastov3911116113O. Kolos31921191
LAug 1 · 08:30A. Fastov161870O. Kolos331111113
A. Fastov10
WOct 10 · 05:00A. Fastov1.251114113D. Aldayev3.7581280WOct 3 · 11:30V. Klymenko4.009790A. Fastov1.221111113WOct 3 · 10:00A. Fastov1.83141111113R. Boklah1.83167961WOct 3 · 08:00V. Ivnytskyi5.007911101A. Fastov1.1411118123LOct 3 · 06:00O. Kolos2.1011115113A. Fastov1.67781151LOct 3 · 05:00D. Aldayev4.331191111113A. Fastov1.2051113882WSep 28 · 17:34A. Fastov1.835111012113R. Boklah1.83116121092WSep 28 · 15:30D. Aldayev4.00119671A. Fastov1.2271111113WSep 28 · 14:30A. Fastov1.73811611113O. Kolos2.0011311982WSep 28 · 13:30R. Boklah1.67411681A. Fastov2.1011911113
O. Kolos10
LOct 10 · 06:30V. Klymenko3.401118113O. Kolos1.3081680WOct 10 · 04:30R. Boklah1.73113971O. Kolos2.0051111113LOct 7 · 17:13R. Boklah1.73511614123O. Kolos2.001181112102WOct 7 · 16:00O. Kolos2.10811814113R. Boklah1.67117111282WOct 7 · 15:00V. Ivnytskyi3.75613371O. Kolos1.25111111113LOct 7 · 14:00D. Aldayev3.407111511113O. Kolos1.3011917852WOct 7 · 12:30V. Klymenko3.5091111792O. Kolos1.28117811113WOct 5 · 17:48O. Kolos2.501112113R. Boklah1.5051090WOct 3 · 06:00O. Kolos2.1011115113A. Fastov1.67781151LSep 28 · 14:30A. Fastov1.73811611113O. Kolos2.0011311982
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