TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Makovka vs Maksym Tiutiunnyk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711411411––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Makovka above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 48 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 63.7%
48 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Makovka 14–23 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Yaroslav Makovka has won 14 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:0463.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-23 in 37
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
gap of 9 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makovka 1528 vs Tiutiunnyk 1597
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makovka 40% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makovka 40% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makovka +1 · Tiutiunnyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Tiutiunnyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tiutiunnyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakovka 2.50 / Tiutiunnyk 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270590
Makovka2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 48 of 142
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Tiutiunnyk1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 68 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it80% 39 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakovka3wins
AwayTiutiunnyk7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTiutiunnyk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakovka50%2 of 4
AwayTiutiunnyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makovka4Tiutiunnyk6n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S2Makovka4Tiutiunnyk6n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 6 of 10
S3Makovka2Tiutiunnyk8n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 8 of 10
S4Makovka4Tiutiunnyk4n = 8split evenly
S5Makovka2Tiutiunnyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakovkaTiutiunnykM − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.940.9−4.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakovkaTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 362 vs 203 / 40939%49.6%141 / 362 vs 203 / 409Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykMakovka 2.50/Tiutiunnyk 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 11:40Y. Makovka4011117113M. Tiutiunnyk33791161
LSep 20 · 11:30Y. Makovka4581121682M. Tiutiunnyk501131114113
LAug 2 · 06:35Y. Makovka1511130M. Tiutiunnyk351311113
LJul 24 · 15:30Y. Makovka33591181M. Tiutiunnyk4211119113
LJun 13 · 11:10Y. Makovka2461080M. Tiutiunnyk341112113
WJun 7 · 09:00Y. Makovka48811711113M. Tiutiunnyk4611911782
LJun 6 · 14:40Y. Makovka4010111091M. Tiutiunnyk4012512113
LMay 3 · 09:30Y. Makovka3911851142M. Tiutiunnyk44611115113
LApr 19 · 10:00Y. Makovka371195121M. Tiutiunnyk4261111143
WMar 29 · 05:00Y. Makovka48117118113M. Tiutiunnyk4371161182
Y. Makovka10
WOct 10 · 15:10Y. Skorobahatyi1.28811371Y. Makovka3.5011811113WOct 10 · 14:10Y. Makovka1.831111102V. Evtodiy1.8356121LOct 10 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.221111113Y. Makovka4.0048100LOct 10 · 11:40Y. Makovka4.5011590A. Droshchynskyi1.171311113LSep 27 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.1711911113Y. Makovka4.50511761WSep 27 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.5795111142Y. Makovka2.25111145113LSep 27 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko1.331111113Y. Makovka3.258770LSep 27 · 06:30O. Zhyrnov1.441111113Y. Makovka2.632760WSep 27 · 04:30O. Blashkun1.6711114972Y. Makovka2.10991111113LSep 26 · 17:40Y. Makovka2.75117111172Y. Holoborodko1.40131199113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
LOct 10 · 16:10V. Evtodiy1.9114511123M. Tiutiunnyk1.8012117101WOct 10 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.6711911902M. Tiutiunnyk2.1091171122WOct 10 · 12:40A. Droshchynskyi1.3612261192M. Tiutiunnyk3.001011116113LOct 10 · 10:40Y. Skorobahatyi2.2571112113M. Tiutiunnyk1.571181061WOct 1 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko2.006880M. Tiutiunnyk1.731111113LOct 1 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.759950V. Maksuta1.401111113LOct 1 · 14:10E. Hrytsenko1.8311117113M. Tiutiunnyk1.83741161LOct 1 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.501111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.505840WOct 1 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.4471060M. Tiutiunnyk2.631112113WSep 30 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.731281111113Y. Holoborodko2.00101113992
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